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Melbourne Demons v Essendon Bombers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Melbourne Demons (Local)
Prediction 80.27%1.25fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -3.06%
Kelly -18.37%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.69%80.05%80.29%81.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.171.171.2090.91%85.55%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Essendon Bombers (Visit)
Prediction 19.73%5.07fair odd
EV +3.58%
Edge +0.681%
Kelly +0.842%
Growth +0.030%
assuming max odds 5.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.10%19.95%19.71%23.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.764.825.2525.97%21.00%20.73%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Demons (Local): 80.27%; Essendon Bombers (Visit): 19.73%. For Essendon Bombers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.07. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.58%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.89%E -5.94%K -43.03%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +3.58%E +0.681%K +0.842%G +0.030% | 5.3% | 2026-06-13 01:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.76%EV -6.89%E -5.94%K -43.03%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.24%EV +2.59%E +0.498%K +0.617%G +0.016% | 5.4% | 2026-06-13 00:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.08%E -5.20%K -35.78%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +0.618%E +0.121%K +0.151%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-13 03:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.08%E -5.20%K -35.78%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +0.618%E +0.121%K +0.151%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-13 03:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.08%E -5.20%K -35.78%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +0.618%E +0.121%K +0.151%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-13 02:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -6.08%E -5.20%K -35.78%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV +0.618%E +0.121%K +0.151%G +0.001% | 5.1% | 2026-06-13 02:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.08%E -5.20%K -35.78%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.36%E -0.271%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-13 01:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.08%E -5.20%K -35.78%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.36%E -0.271%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-13 01:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.08%E -5.20%K -35.78%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.36%E -0.271%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-13 02:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.08%E -5.20%K -35.78%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.36%E -0.271%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-13 01:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.69%E -6.69%K -51.26%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -1.36%E -0.271%K -0.339%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-13 00:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.98%EV -6.08%E -5.20%K -35.78%G +0.000% | 4.98I 20.08%NM 19.02%EV -1.75%E -0.351%K -0.440%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-13 03:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.28%E -4.47%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -3.33%E -0.679%K -0.853%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-13 00:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -6.08%E -5.20%K -35.78%G +0.000% | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -4.31%E -0.890%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-13 03:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -4.48%E -3.76%K -23.57%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -5.30%E -1.10%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-13 01:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.08%E -5.20%K -35.78%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -6.29%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-13 02:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.08%E -5.20%K -35.78%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -6.29%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-13 01:50 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.08%E -5.20%K -35.78%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -6.29%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-13 03:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -6.89%E -5.94%K -43.03%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -6.29%E -1.32%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-06-13 03:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.34%EV -7.69%E -6.69%K -51.26%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV -7.27%E -1.55%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-12 03:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.67%E -3.06%K -18.37%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.22%E -2.49%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-13 01:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.28%E -4.47%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.22%E -2.49%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-10 07:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.28%E -4.47%K -29.33%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.22%E -2.49%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-10 07:38 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -6.89%E -5.94%K -43.03%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -11.22%E -2.49%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-06-13 02:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 80.00%EV -11.70%E -10.64%K -117.02%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.00%EV -13.19%E -3.00%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-06-13 01:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -4.48%E -3.76%K -23.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -21.08%E -5.27%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-11 12:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -4.48%E -3.76%K -23.57%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -21.08%E -5.27%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-06-11 12:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.69%EV -6.08%E -5.20%K -35.78%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.31%EV -24.04%E -6.25%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-06-13 03:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 82.86% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.14% | 0.6% | 2026-06-13 03:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-06-13 02:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 83.45% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.55% | 0.7% | 2026-06-13 02:50 |