Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Demons v Carlton Blues

2026-08-29 09:30 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

56%

44%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Demons (Local)

Prediction 55.84%1.79fair odd

EV -5.06%

Edge -2.98%

Kelly -7.24%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.84%55.84%55.84%57.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.661.681.671.7060.24%59.64%59.88%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carlton Blues (Visit)

Prediction 44.16%2.26fair odd

EV -1.53%

Edge -0.687%

Kelly -1.25%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.67%44.16%44.16%44.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.152.192.202.2346.51%45.59%45.45%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Melbourne Demons (Local): 55.84%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 44.16%. For Carlton Blues (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.23, with an expected value of -1.53%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.06%E -2.98%K -7.24%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.06%E -2.36%K -4.40%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-22 13:44
Paddy Power🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.74%E -4.04%K -10.06%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.86%E -1.30%K -2.38%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-22 13:15
SportsBet🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.30%E -4.40%K -11.06%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -1.53%E -0.687%K -1.25%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-22 13:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.50I 66.67%NM 45.45%	1.25I 80.00%NM 54.55%	46.7%	2026-08-22 15:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.50I 66.67%NM 45.45%	1.25I 80.00%NM 54.55%	46.7%	2026-08-22 15:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.50I 66.67%NM 45.45%	1.25I 80.00%NM 54.55%	46.7%	2026-08-22 15:05

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