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Melbourne Demons v Carlton Blues

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 09:36 UTC

Final: Melbourne Demons 55–74 Carlton Blues

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Melbourne Demons (Local)

Prediction 48.30%2.07fair odd
EV -3.40%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -3.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.95%48.41%48.65%50.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.931.932.0054.64%51.83%51.81%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carlton Blues (Visit)

Prediction 51.70%1.93fair odd
EV -0.217%
Edge -0.113%
Kelly -0.234%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.61%51.59%51.35%53.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.841.851.9359.52%54.27%54.05%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Demons (Local): 48.30%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 51.70%. For Carlton Blues (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.934. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.930, with an expected value of -0.217%; they did not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -3.40%E -1.70%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -5.90%E -3.24%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 09:25
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -3.40%E -1.70%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -6.42%E -3.55%K -7.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 09:20
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -3.40%E -1.70%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.94%E -3.85%K -8.67%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 08:40
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -3.40%E -1.70%K -3.40%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -8.49%E -4.80%K -11.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 09:35
SportsBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.16%EV -4.85%E -2.46%K -5.00%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.84%EV -5.39%E -2.94%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 08:50
Bet Right🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -5.82%E -2.98%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.65%EV -1.77%E -0.931%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-29 09:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.82%E -2.98%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.35%E -2.35%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 09:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.82%E -2.98%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.35%E -2.35%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 09:05
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.82%E -2.98%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.35%E -2.35%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 09:05
TAB🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.82%E -2.98%K -6.12%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.35%E -2.35%K -5.12%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 09:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -6.78%E -3.51%K -7.29%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -3.32%E -1.78%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 09:20
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -6.78%E -3.51%K -7.29%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -3.32%E -1.78%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 09:20
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -6.78%E -3.51%K -7.29%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -3.32%E -1.78%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 09:20
TABtouch🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -6.78%E -3.51%K -7.29%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -3.32%E -1.78%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 09:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.21%EV -6.78%E -3.51%K -7.29%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.79%EV -3.32%E -1.78%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 09:20
Dabble (AU)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.47%EV -7.27%E -3.78%K -7.90%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.53%EV -2.80%E -1.49%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 09:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -7.75%E -4.06%K -8.51%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -4.35%E -2.35%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 09:20
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -7.75%E -4.06%K -8.51%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV -4.35%E -2.35%K -5.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 09:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -7.75%E -4.06%K -8.51%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 51.34%EV -6.42%E -3.55%K -7.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-29 08:20
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.39%EV -8.23%E -4.33%K -9.15%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.61%EV -0.217%E -0.113%K -0.234%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-29 09:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -8.23%E -4.33%K -9.15%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -1.77%E -0.931%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 08:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -8.23%E -4.33%K -9.15%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -1.77%E -0.931%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 06:40
Coral🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -8.23%E -4.33%K -9.15%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -1.77%E -0.931%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 06:39
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -8.23%E -4.33%K -9.15%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.94%E -3.85%K -8.67%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 09:10
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -8.23%E -4.33%K -9.15%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.94%E -3.85%K -8.67%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 09:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.03%EV -11.13%E -6.05%K -13.25%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 50.97%EV -8.49%E -4.80%K -11.03%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-29 09:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.86%EV -11.61%E -6.35%K -13.99%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.14%EV -13.14%E -7.82%K -19.33%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-29 09:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.87%1.95I 51.28%NM 51.13%0.3%2026-08-29 09:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.87%1.95I 51.28%NM 51.13%0.3%2026-08-29 09:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.87%1.95I 51.28%NM 51.13%0.3%2026-08-29 09:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.50%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.35%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.15%8.5%2026-08-29 09:10