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Melbourne Demons v Brisbane Lions
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Melbourne Demons (Local)
Prediction 23.83%4.20fair odd
EV +4.85%
Edge +1.10%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.069%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.43%24.03%23.76%27.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.923.904.4029.41%25.53%25.64%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Brisbane Lions (Visit)
Prediction 76.17%1.31fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -8.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.28
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.65%75.97%76.24%78.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.231.231.2886.96%81.23%81.30%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Melbourne Demons (Local): 23.83%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 76.17%. For Melbourne Demons (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.20. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.85%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +4.85%E +1.10%K +1.43%G +0.069% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -8.60%E -7.16%K -42.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-19 04:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV +2.47%E +0.575%K +0.749%G +0.019% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -7.07%E -5.80%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-19 04:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV +2.47%E +0.575%K +0.749%G +0.019% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -10.12%E -8.58%K -56.22%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-19 04:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +0.088%E +0.021%K +0.028%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-19 03:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.29%E -0.560%K -0.740%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.55%E -4.48%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-19 05:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -3.49%E -0.861%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-19 04:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.53%EV -3.96%E -0.983%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.47%EV -5.55%E -4.48%K -23.12%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-19 05:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-19 05:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-19 04:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-19 04:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-19 04:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-19 02:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-19 02:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-19 05:10 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-19 05:08 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-19 01:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-19 01:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-19 01:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-19 01:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -8.25%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.79%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-19 01:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.64%E -2.84%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-19 04:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -10.64%E -2.84%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.07%E -5.80%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-19 04:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -11.83%E -3.20%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -7.07%E -5.80%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-19 02:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -11.83%E -3.20%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -7.07%E -5.80%K -32.15%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-19 02:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.71%EV -11.83%E -3.20%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 76.29%EV -12.41%E -10.79%K -82.70%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-04-19 04:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -14.21%E -3.95%K -5.47%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -2.50%E -1.96%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-18 13:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -17.78%E -5.15%K -7.26%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.19%EV -8.60%E -7.16%K -42.98%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-19 05:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -18.98%E -5.58%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -2.50%E -1.96%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-19 05:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.35% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.65% | 0.1% | 2026-04-19 05:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.35% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.65% | 0.1% | 2026-04-19 05:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79% | 0.7% | 2026-04-19 05:10 |