La scuola delle quote

Melbourne Demons v Brisbane Lions

Inizio: 2026-04-19 05:15 UTC

Finale: Melbourne Demons 104–102 Brisbane Lions

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

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28 bookmaker (8 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Melbourne Demons (Casa)

Previsione 23.83%4.20quota equa
EV +4.85%
Vantaggio +1.10%
Kelly +1.43%
Crescita +0.069%

ipotizzando la quota massima 4.40

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
21.43%24.03%23.76%27.35%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
3.403.923.904.4029.41%25.53%25.64%22.73%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Brisbane Lions (Trasferta)

Previsione 76.17%1.31quota equa
EV -2.50%
Vantaggio -1.96%
Kelly -8.94%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.28

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
72.65%75.97%76.24%78.57%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.151.231.231.2886.96%81.23%81.30%78.13%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (28 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasa ▼TrasfertaMargineAggiornamento
Dabble (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +4.85%E +1.10%K +1.43%G +0.069%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -8.60%E -7.16%K -42.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-19 04:40
Betr (AU)4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV +2.47%E +0.575%K +0.749%G +0.019%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -7.07%E -5.80%K -32.15%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-19 04:50
Tipico (DE)4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV +2.47%E +0.575%K +0.749%G +0.019%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -10.12%E -8.58%K -56.22%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 04:50
PlayUp4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV +0.088%E +0.021%K +0.028%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-19 03:30
PointsBet (AU)4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -2.29%E -0.560%K -0.740%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.55%E -4.48%K -23.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-19 05:05
SportsBet4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -3.49%E -0.861%K -1.14%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-19 04:54
Pinnacle4.03I 24.81%NM 23.53%EV -3.96%E -0.983%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.47%EV -5.55%E -4.48%K -23.12%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-19 05:00
TAB4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-19 05:09
Coolbet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-19 04:44
Ladbrokes (AU)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-19 04:25
Neds4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-19 04:25
Ladbrokes (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 02:00
Coral4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -4.68%E -1.17%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-19 02:05
DraftKings3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-19 05:10
Bet Right3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-19 05:08
Grosvenor3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 01:25
Casumo3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 01:25
Unibet (NL)3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 01:25
TABtouch3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -7.06%E -1.81%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.02%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 01:24
Unibet3.85I 25.97%NM 24.21%EV -8.25%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 75.79%EV -6.31%E -5.13%K -27.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 01:25
Paddy Power3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -10.64%E -2.84%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.79%E -3.83%K -19.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-19 04:45
Everygame3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -10.64%E -2.84%K -3.87%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.07%E -5.80%K -32.15%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 04:50
Betsson3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -11.83%E -3.20%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -7.07%E -5.80%K -32.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 02:35
NordicBet3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -11.83%E -3.20%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -7.07%E -5.80%K -32.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 02:35
NetBet (FR)3.70I 27.03%NM 23.71%EV -11.83%E -3.20%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 76.29%EV -12.41%E -10.79%K -82.70%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-19 04:50
BetUS3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -14.21%E -3.95%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -2.50%E -1.96%K -8.94%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-18 13:00
Unibet (FR)3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -17.78%E -5.15%K -7.26%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 74.19%EV -8.60%E -7.16%K -42.98%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-19 05:05
Marathon Bet3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -18.98%E -5.58%K -7.91%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -2.50%E -1.96%K -8.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-19 05:10
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (3)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.10I 24.39%NM 24.35%1.32I 75.76%NM 75.65%0.1%2026-04-19 05:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.10I 24.39%NM 24.35%1.32I 75.76%NM 75.65%0.1%2026-04-19 05:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79%0.7%2026-04-19 05:10