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Hawthorn Hawks v Western Bulldogs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hawthorn Hawks (Local)
Prediction 63.09%1.59fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -4.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.95%62.76%63.06%68.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.491.501.5571.43%67.23%66.67%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Western Bulldogs (Visit)
Prediction 36.91%2.71fair odd
EV +10.74%
Edge +3.58%
Kelly +5.37%
Growth +0.577%
assuming max odds 3.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.82%37.24%36.94%40.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.582.603.0043.10%38.78%38.46%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hawthorn Hawks (Local): 63.09%; Western Bulldogs (Visit): 36.91%. For Western Bulldogs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.74%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -11.68%E -8.34%K -29.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +10.74%E +3.58%K +5.37%G +0.577% | 4.8% | 2026-06-04 13:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -11.68%E -8.34%K -29.20%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV +5.94%E +2.07%K +3.18%G +0.189% | 6.3% | 2026-06-04 22:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -11.68%E -8.34%K -29.20%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV +5.94%E +2.07%K +3.18%G +0.189% | 6.3% | 2026-06-04 22:28 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.63%E -4.48%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -2.18%E -0.823%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-05 08:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.37%E -3.58%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.29%E -1.25%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-05 08:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.74%E -3.14%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -4.03%E -1.55%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-05 09:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.37%E -3.58%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.03%E -1.55%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-05 03:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.37%E -3.58%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.03%E -1.55%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-05 03:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.37%E -3.58%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.03%E -1.55%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-05 03:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.37%E -3.58%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.03%E -1.55%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-05 03:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.37%E -3.58%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.03%E -1.55%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-05 09:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.37%E -3.58%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.03%E -1.55%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-05 09:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.37%E -3.58%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.03%E -1.55%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-05 08:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.37%E -3.58%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.03%E -1.55%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-05 08:49 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.37%E -3.58%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.03%E -1.55%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-05 08:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.64%EV -6.63%E -4.48%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.36%EV -4.40%E -1.70%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-06-05 09:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -2.85%E -1.85%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -5.87%E -2.30%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-05 09:29 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.11%E -2.70%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -5.87%E -2.30%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-05 09:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.74%E -3.14%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -5.87%E -2.30%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-05 09:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.52%E -5.88%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -5.87%E -2.30%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-05 06:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.48%E -2.27%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -7.72%E -3.09%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-05 09:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.31%EV -5.37%E -3.58%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -8.46%E -3.41%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-05 07:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -6.63%E -4.48%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -11.41%E -4.75%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-05 06:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -6.63%E -4.48%K -13.82%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -11.41%E -4.75%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-05 06:29 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.86%EV -11.68%E -8.34%K -29.20%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 37.14%EV -12.52%E -5.28%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-06-05 08:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -3.48%E -2.27%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -13.25%E -5.64%K -9.82%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-06-05 09:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -2.22%E -1.43%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -14.36%E -6.19%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-05 09:28 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.57% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.43% | 0.2% | 2026-06-05 09:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.57% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.43% | 0.2% | 2026-06-05 09:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-06-05 09:30 |