The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Hawthorn Hawks v Port Adelaide Power

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 06:15 UTC

Final: Hawthorn Hawks 89–86 Port Adelaide Power

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hawthorn Hawks (Local)

Prediction 85.43%1.17fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -3.86%
Kelly -36.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.36%85.46%85.41%87.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.101.101.1297.09%90.91%90.91%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Port Adelaide Power (Visit)

Prediction 14.57%6.86fair odd
EV +10.76%
Edge +1.42%
Kelly +1.63%
Growth +0.176%

assuming max odds 7.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.24%14.54%14.59%18.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.806.426.507.6020.83%15.58%15.38%13.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hawthorn Hawks (Local): 85.43%; Port Adelaide Power (Visit): 14.57%. For Port Adelaide Power (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.86. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.76%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.76%EV -9.45%E -8.91%K -157.48%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.24%EV +10.76%E +1.42%K +1.63%G +0.176%7.5%2026-04-18 05:05
PlayUp🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.03%E -5.48%K -60.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +2.02%E +0.289%K +0.337%G +0.007%5.2%2026-04-18 03:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.03%E -5.48%K -60.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +2.02%E +0.289%K +0.337%G +0.007%5.2%2026-04-17 02:55
Casumo🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.03%E -5.48%K -60.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +2.02%E +0.289%K +0.337%G +0.007%5.2%2026-04-17 02:54
Grosvenor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.03%E -5.48%K -60.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +2.02%E +0.289%K +0.337%G +0.007%5.2%2026-04-17 02:54
TABtouch🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.03%E -5.48%K -60.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +2.02%E +0.289%K +0.337%G +0.007%5.2%2026-04-17 02:54
Dabble (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.03%E -5.48%K -60.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +2.02%E +0.289%K +0.337%G +0.007%5.2%2026-04-17 22:15
BetUS🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.03%E -5.48%K -60.32%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +2.02%E +0.289%K +0.337%G +0.007%5.2%2026-04-15 23:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -8.59%E -8.03%K -122.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV +2.02%E +0.289%K +0.337%G +0.007%7.7%2026-04-16 02:59
Neds🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.18%E -4.66%K -47.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -5.27%E -0.810%K -0.958%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-18 05:15
DraftKings🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.18%E -4.66%K -47.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -5.27%E -0.810%K -0.958%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-18 05:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.18%E -4.66%K -47.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -5.27%E -0.810%K -0.958%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-18 05:15
TAB🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.18%E -4.66%K -47.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -5.27%E -0.810%K -0.958%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-18 04:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.18%E -4.66%K -47.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -5.27%E -0.810%K -0.958%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-18 05:40
Bet Right🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.18%E -4.66%K -47.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -5.27%E -0.810%K -0.958%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-18 05:15
Pinnacle🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.18%E -4.66%K -47.07%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -5.27%E -0.810%K -0.958%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-18 05:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.03%E -5.48%K -60.32%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -5.27%E -0.810%K -0.958%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-18 04:40
Coolbet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -4.32%E -3.86%K -36.03%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -6.72%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-18 04:45
SportsBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.18%E -4.66%K -47.07%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -8.91%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-18 04:50
Unibet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -6.03%E -5.48%K -60.32%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -8.91%E -1.43%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 02:54
Paddy Power🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.32%E -3.86%K -36.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -12.55%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 04:40
Everygame🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.03%E -5.48%K -60.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -12.55%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-18 03:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.03%E -5.48%K -60.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -12.55%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 01:44
Coral🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.03%E -5.48%K -60.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -12.55%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 01:48
NetBet (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 85.35%EV -12.01%E -11.66%K -400.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.65%EV -12.55%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-18 04:40
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.41%EV -5.18%E -4.66%K -47.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.59%EV -24.21%E -4.66%K -5.77%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 05:55
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.41%EV -5.18%E -4.66%K -47.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.59%EV -24.21%E -4.66%K -5.77%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-18 05:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.36%EV -6.03%E -5.48%K -60.32%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.64%EV -30.04%E -6.26%K -7.91%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-18 06:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75%0.5%2026-04-18 06:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.96%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.04%0.9%2026-04-18 06:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.62%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38%1.0%2026-04-18 06:10