The School of Odds
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Hawthorn Hawks v Gold Coast Suns

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 02:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hawthorn Hawks (Local)

Prediction 57.15%1.75fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -5.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.00%57.18%57.12%58.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.641.651.6865.36%60.87%60.61%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Suns (Visit)

Prediction 42.85%2.33fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.629%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%42.82%42.88%44.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.202.3048.78%45.42%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hawthorn Hawks (Local): 57.15%; Gold Coast Suns (Visit): 42.85%. For Gold Coast Suns (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.33. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -1.45%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.99%E -2.37%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 06:49
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.99%E -2.37%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 06:50
Dabble (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.99%E -2.37%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-23 23:34
SportsBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -4.56%E -2.73%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -4.88%E -2.20%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 10:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.56%E -2.73%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 09:09
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.56%E -2.73%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 09:00
Bet Right🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.56%E -2.73%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 09:05
Coolbet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.13%E -3.09%K -7.77%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -4.45%E -1.99%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 09:24
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.70%E -3.46%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.59%E -1.60%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 06:54
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.70%E -3.46%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.59%E -1.60%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 10:15
Casumo🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.70%E -3.46%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.59%E -1.60%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 08:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.70%E -3.46%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.59%E -1.60%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 08:09
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.70%E -3.46%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.59%E -1.60%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 08:09
Grosvenor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.70%E -3.46%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.59%E -1.60%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 08:09
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.70%E -3.46%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.59%E -1.60%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 13:49
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.70%E -3.46%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 20:15
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.70%E -3.46%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 22:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.70%E -3.46%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.73%E -2.61%K -4.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 22:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -5.70%E -3.46%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -10.02%E -4.77%K -9.11%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 15:24
Unibet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -6.84%E -4.20%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -4.45%E -1.99%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 08:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%EV -6.84%E -4.20%K -10.86%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -7.02%E -3.23%K -6.00%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 08:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.42%E -4.58%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.45%E -0.629%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 06:54
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.46%EV -7.42%E -4.58%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.54%EV -2.30%E -1.01%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 09:04
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.42%E -4.58%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.87%E -3.66%K -6.85%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 09:04
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.42%E -4.58%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.87%E -3.66%K -6.85%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 09:04
Everygame🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.42%E -4.58%K -11.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.87%E -3.66%K -6.85%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-24 02:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.47%EV -9.70%E -6.14%K -16.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.53%EV -12.16%E -5.93%K -11.58%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-24 02:34
NetBet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.50%EV -12.56%E -8.21%K -23.70%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.50%EV -11.30%E -5.46%K -10.56%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-23 08:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.76%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.24%0.2%2026-04-24 02:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.76%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.24%0.2%2026-04-24 02:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.76%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.24%0.2%2026-04-24 02:50