The School of Odds
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Hawthorn Hawks v Geelong Cats

Kickoff: 2026-04-06 05:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hawthorn Hawks (Local)

Prediction 53.78%1.86fair odd
EV -0.510%
Edge -0.276%
Kelly -0.600%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.32%53.90%53.95%58.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.741.751.8562.50%57.48%56.98%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Geelong Cats (Visit)

Prediction 46.22%2.16fair odd
EV +4.00%
Edge +1.78%
Kelly +3.20%
Growth +0.128%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.71%46.10%46.05%48.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.052.022.2552.36%48.72%49.38%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hawthorn Hawks (Local): 53.78%; Geelong Cats (Visit): 46.22%. For Geelong Cats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -11.27%E -6.83%K -17.33%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +4.00%E +1.78%K +3.20%G +0.128%5.1%2026-04-05 12:24
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -13.42%E -8.33%K -21.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV +4.00%E +1.78%K +3.20%G +0.128%6.6%2026-04-05 05:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -13.42%E -8.33%K -21.99%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV +4.00%E +1.78%K +3.20%G +0.128%6.6%2026-04-05 05:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -13.95%E -8.72%K -23.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV +1.69%E +0.767%K +1.41%G +0.024%8.0%2026-04-05 09:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -6.43%E -3.69%K -8.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -2.93%E -1.40%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-06 05:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.96%E -4.03%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.93%E -1.40%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 04:35
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.96%E -4.03%K -9.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -2.93%E -1.40%K -2.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-06 04:35
Everygame🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -11.27%E -6.83%K -17.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -2.93%E -1.40%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-06 04:20
Coolbet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -5.35%E -3.04%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -3.86%E -1.86%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-06 05:10
TABtouch🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.81%E -2.72%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.78%E -2.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 05:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.81%E -2.72%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.78%E -2.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 05:10
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.81%E -2.72%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.78%E -2.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 05:10
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -4.81%E -2.72%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.21%EV -4.78%E -2.32%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-06 05:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.13%EV -7.50%E -4.36%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 45.87%EV -6.17%E -3.04%K -5.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 05:10
Pinnacle🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -2.12%E -1.17%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -6.63%E -3.28%K -6.50%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-06 04:50
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%EV -5.89%E -3.36%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%EV -6.63%E -3.28%K -6.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-06 05:10
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.95%EV -0.510%E -0.276%K -0.600%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-06 04:50
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-06 05:10
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-06 05:05
TAB🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-06 05:10
Dabble (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -3.20%E -1.78%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-06 05:10
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.81%E -2.72%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 05:10
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.50%E -4.36%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-06 05:00
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -7.50%E -4.36%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -7.56%E -3.78%K -7.56%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-06 05:05
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -0.510%E -0.276%K -0.600%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -9.87%E -5.06%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 05:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -0.510%E -0.276%K -0.600%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -9.87%E -5.06%K -10.39%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 05:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.24%EV -12.88%E -7.95%K -20.77%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 45.76%EV -11.25%E -5.86%K -12.23%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-06 05:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.20%EV -9.65%E -5.75%K -14.19%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.80%EV -11.72%E -6.13%K -12.88%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-06 05:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24%0.6%2026-04-06 05:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24%0.6%2026-04-06 05:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24%0.6%2026-04-06 05:05