The School of Odds
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Hawthorn Hawks v Adelaide Crows

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 09:31 UTC

Final: Hawthorn Hawks 75–66 Adelaide Crows

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hawthorn Hawks (Local)

Prediction 61.06%1.64fair odd
EV -0.478%
Edge -0.293%
Kelly -0.758%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.11%60.63%61.35%63.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.541.551.6369.93%65.02%64.52%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide Crows (Visit)

Prediction 38.94%2.57fair odd
EV +3.20%
Edge +1.21%
Kelly +1.94%
Growth +0.062%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.14%39.37%38.65%42.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.432.452.6546.08%41.07%40.82%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hawthorn Hawks (Local): 61.06%; Adelaide Crows (Visit): 38.94%. For Adelaide Crows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.57. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.20%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -8.42%E -5.61%K -16.83%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV +3.20%E +1.21%K +1.94%G +0.062%4.4%2026-05-21 09:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -7.19%E -4.73%K -13.83%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -1.47%E -0.582%K -0.963%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-21 09:30
Bet Right🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -2.64%E -1.06%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-21 09:30
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.64%E -1.06%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-21 09:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.64%E -1.06%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-21 09:30
Dabble (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.64%E -1.06%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-21 09:30
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.09%EV -7.19%E -4.73%K -13.83%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.91%EV -3.03%E -1.22%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-21 09:28
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -3.81%E -1.54%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-21 09:28
TAB🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -3.53%E -2.23%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-21 09:30
Neds🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-21 09:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-21 09:30
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-21 09:30
TABtouch🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-21 09:30
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-21 09:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-21 09:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-21 09:30
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-21 09:29
Pinnacle🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.85%EV -4.14%E -2.64%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.15%EV -4.98%E -2.04%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-21 09:29
PlayUp🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.14%E -2.64%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.54%E -2.72%K -4.67%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-21 09:30
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.54%E -2.72%K -4.67%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-21 09:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.42%E -5.61%K -16.83%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.54%E -2.72%K -4.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-21 09:30
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -4.75%E -3.05%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-21 09:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.35%EV -12.69%E -8.87%K -29.51%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 38.65%EV -11.60%E -5.11%K -9.13%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-21 09:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.48%EV -10.25%E -6.97%K -21.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.52%EV -12.38%E -5.50%K -9.90%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-21 09:28
Marathon Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%EV -0.478%E -0.293%K -0.758%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -15.49%E -7.14%K -13.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-21 09:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%0.6%2026-05-21 09:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%0.9%2026-05-21 09:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26%0.9%2026-05-21 09:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.70%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%8.1%2026-05-21 09:29
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.70%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%8.1%2026-05-21 09:30