语言:简体中文
Hawthorn Hawks v Adelaide Crows
收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →
胜负盘
Hawthorn Hawks (主队)
预测 61.06%1.64公平赔率
EV -0.478%
优势 -0.293%
Kelly -0.758%
增长率 +0.000%
假设最高赔率为 1.63
博彩公司预测分布
57.11%60.63%61.35%63.86%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.431.541.551.6369.93%65.02%64.52%61.35%最小值均值中位数最大值
Adelaide Crows (客队)
预测 38.94%2.57公平赔率
EV +3.20%
优势 +1.21%
Kelly +1.94%
增长率 +0.062%
假设最高赔率为 2.65
博彩公司预测分布
36.14%39.37%38.65%42.89%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.172.432.452.6546.08%41.07%40.82%37.74%最小值均值中位数最大值
按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Hawthorn Hawks (主队)：61.06%；Adelaide Crows (客队)：38.94%。 对于“Adelaide Crows (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.57。 当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为2.65，对应+3.20%的正期望值。
有 2 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。
博彩公司赔率 (25 家博彩公司)
我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 ▼ | 利润率 | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -8.42%E -5.61%K -16.83%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV +3.20%E +1.21%K +1.94%G +0.062% | 4.4% | 2026-05-21 09:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -7.19%E -4.73%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -1.47%E -0.582%K -0.963%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -2.64%E -1.06%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.64%E -1.06%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-21 09:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.64%E -1.06%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.64%E -1.06%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.09%EV -7.19%E -4.73%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.91%EV -3.03%E -1.22%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-21 09:28 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -3.81%E -1.54%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-21 09:28 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.79%EV -3.53%E -2.23%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.21%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.58%E -4.30%K -12.42%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.59%E -1.87%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-21 09:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.85%EV -4.14%E -2.64%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.15%EV -4.98%E -2.04%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-21 09:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.14%E -2.64%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.54%E -2.72%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.36%E -3.46%K -9.75%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -6.54%E -2.72%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.42%E -5.61%K -16.83%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.54%E -2.72%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -4.75%E -3.05%K -8.49%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -8.48%E -3.61%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 61.35%EV -12.69%E -8.87%K -29.51%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 38.65%EV -11.60%E -5.11%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-21 09:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.48%EV -10.25%E -6.97%K -21.80%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.52%EV -12.38%E -5.50%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-21 09:28 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.11%EV -0.478%E -0.293%K -0.758%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.89%EV -15.49%E -7.14%K -13.24%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-21 09:29 |
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率
更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。
博彩交易所 (3)
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 0.6% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26% | 0.9% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26% | 0.9% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |
其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (2)
这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。
| 博彩公司 | 选项 1 | 选项 2 | 选项 3 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.70% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38% | 100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93% | 8.1% | 2026-05-21 09:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.70% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.38% | 100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93% | 8.1% | 2026-05-21 09:30 |