The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Gold Coast Suns v Hawthorn Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-06-19 09:40 UTC

Final: Gold Coast Suns 97–113 Hawthorn Hawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Gold Coast Suns (Local)

Prediction 42.75%2.34fair odd
EV +0.471%
Edge +0.201%
Kelly +0.349%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.51%43.08%42.68%45.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.192.192.3550.00%45.71%45.66%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hawthorn Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 57.25%1.75fair odd
EV -0.391%
Edge -0.225%
Kelly -0.529%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.05%56.92%57.32%59.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.651.651.7465.36%60.55%60.61%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Gold Coast Suns (Local): 42.75%; Hawthorn Hawks (Visit): 57.25%. For Gold Coast Suns (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.34. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.471%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
TAB🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +0.471%E +0.201%K +0.349%G +0.002%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -8.41%E -5.25%K -14.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-19 09:30
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +0.471%E +0.201%K +0.349%G +0.002%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -8.41%E -5.25%K -14.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-19 09:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV +0.471%E +0.201%K +0.349%G +0.002%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -8.41%E -5.25%K -14.01%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-19 09:30
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.67%E -0.725%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.54%E -3.36%K -8.53%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-19 09:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -1.67%E -0.725%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -6.69%E -4.10%K -10.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-19 09:30
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -1.67%E -0.725%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -7.83%E -4.87%K -12.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-19 09:30
Pinnacle🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -3.38%E -1.49%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -4.97%E -2.99%K -7.53%G +0.000%4.5%2026-06-19 09:30
SportsBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.60%EV -3.38%E -1.49%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.40%EV -7.83%E -4.87%K -12.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-19 09:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.80%E -1.69%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.54%E -3.36%K -8.53%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-19 09:30
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.80%E -1.69%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.54%E -3.36%K -8.53%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-19 09:30
Dabble (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.80%E -1.69%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.54%E -3.36%K -8.53%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-19 09:30
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.80%E -1.69%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.26%E -4.48%K -11.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-19 09:20
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.94%E -2.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -3.83%E -2.28%K -5.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-19 09:30
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -5.94%E -2.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.41%E -5.25%K -14.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-19 09:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -6.80%E -3.12%K -5.76%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -7.26%E -4.48%K -11.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-19 06:00
Casumo🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.08%E -3.76%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.68%E -1.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-19 07:50
Grosvenor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.08%E -3.76%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.68%E -1.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-19 07:50
TABtouch🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.08%E -3.76%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.68%E -1.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-19 07:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.08%E -3.76%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -2.68%E -1.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-19 07:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.08%E -3.76%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.40%E -2.63%K -6.57%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-18 22:30
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.08%E -3.76%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.40%E -2.63%K -6.57%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-18 22:30
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -10.22%E -4.87%K -9.29%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -2.68%E -1.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-19 07:20
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -12.35%E -6.03%K -11.77%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -0.391%E -0.225%K -0.529%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-18 15:20
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -12.35%E -6.03%K -11.77%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -3.83%E -2.28%K -5.63%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-18 15:10
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -12.35%E -6.03%K -11.77%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.96%EV -3.83%E -2.28%K -5.63%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-18 15:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.74%EV -12.35%E -6.03%K -11.77%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.26%EV -12.41%E -8.11%K -23.42%G +0.000%14.1%2026-06-19 09:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -14.49%E -7.25%K -14.49%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -2.68%E -1.58%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-18 21:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.05%EV -14.49%E -7.25%K -14.49%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 54.95%EV -6.12%E -3.73%K -9.56%G +0.000%11.0%2026-06-19 09:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%0.6%2026-06-19 09:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%0.6%2026-06-19 09:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%0.6%2026-06-19 09:30