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Geelong Cats v Western Bulldogs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Geelong Cats (Local)
Prediction 61.87%1.62fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -7.45%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.87%61.93%61.96%64.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.521.531.5570.42%65.92%65.36%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Western Bulldogs (Visit)
Prediction 38.13%2.62fair odd
EV -0.104%
Edge -0.040%
Kelly -0.064%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.94%38.07%38.04%39.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.482.502.6243.10%40.26%40.00%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Geelong Cats (Local): 61.87%; Western Bulldogs (Visit): 38.13%. For Western Bulldogs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.623. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.620, with an expected value of -0.104%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.10%E -2.64%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.59%E -2.69%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 08:40 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.10%E -2.64%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.59%E -2.69%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-17 08:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.72%E -3.06%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -2.77%E -1.09%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-15 23:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.72%E -3.06%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -4.68%E -1.87%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-17 08:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.41%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59%EV -3.15%E -1.24%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-17 08:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.68%E -1.87%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-17 02:54 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.68%E -1.87%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-17 02:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.68%E -1.87%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-17 02:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.68%E -1.87%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-17 02:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.68%E -1.87%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-17 08:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.68%E -1.87%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-17 08:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.68%E -1.87%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-17 09:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.59%E -2.69%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-15 01:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.59%E -2.69%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-15 04:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -9.25%E -3.89%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-17 02:54 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -5.96%E -3.92%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -0.866%E -0.333%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-17 09:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.96%E -3.92%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -2.77%E -1.09%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-17 09:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.13%EV -5.96%E -3.92%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 38.87%EV -8.87%E -3.71%K -6.38%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-16 19:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -0.104%E -0.040%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-17 09:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -0.866%E -0.333%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 09:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -0.866%E -0.333%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-17 09:14 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.49%E -3.54%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-17 01:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.49%E -3.54%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-17 06:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -10.40%E -4.42%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-15 08:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -10.40%E -4.42%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-15 08:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.06%EV -9.05%E -6.16%K -19.25%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.94%EV -0.104%E -0.040%K -0.064%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-17 09:14 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 62.03%EV -12.14%E -8.55%K -28.91%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 37.97%EV -11.54%E -4.98%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-04-17 08:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80% | 0.5% | 2026-04-17 09:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 0.6% | 2026-04-17 09:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17% | 0.8% | 2026-04-17 09:14 |