The School of Odds
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Geelong Cats v Sydney Swans

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 06:15 UTC

Final: Geelong Cats 107–80 Sydney Swans

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Geelong Cats (Local)

Prediction 63.56%1.57fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -3.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.48%63.33%63.72%65.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.481.481.5470.92%67.73%67.80%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sydney Swans (Visit)

Prediction 36.44%2.74fair odd
EV +0.203%
Edge +0.074%
Kelly +0.116%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.37%36.67%36.28%39.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.592.632.7544.44%38.65%38.10%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Geelong Cats (Local): 63.56%; Sydney Swans (Visit): 36.44%. For Sydney Swans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.74. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.203%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.83%E -5.40%K -17.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +0.203%E +0.074%K +0.116%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 06:08
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.83%E -5.40%K -17.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +0.203%E +0.074%K +0.116%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 05:49
Dabble (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.83%E -5.40%K -17.41%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +0.203%E +0.074%K +0.116%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 05:49
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.47%E -5.88%K -19.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +0.203%E +0.074%K +0.116%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 05:59
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.47%E -5.88%K -19.25%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +0.203%E +0.074%K +0.116%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 06:09
DraftKings🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.56%E -4.46%K -13.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -1.62%E -0.599%K -0.952%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 06:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.56%E -4.46%K -13.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -1.62%E -0.599%K -0.952%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 05:59
TABtouch🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -6.56%E -4.46%K -13.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -1.62%E -0.599%K -0.952%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 05:59
Unibet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.83%E -5.40%K -17.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -1.62%E -0.599%K -0.952%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 06:09
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.42%EV -5.93%E -4.01%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.58%EV -2.35%E -0.876%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 05:49
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.93%E -4.01%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.44%E -1.30%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 05:39
PlayUp🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.93%E -4.01%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.44%E -1.30%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 06:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.93%E -4.01%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.44%E -1.30%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 05:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.93%E -4.01%K -12.35%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.44%E -1.30%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-23 06:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.66%E -3.10%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.26%E -2.02%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 00:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.68%EV -7.20%E -4.93%K -15.65%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.32%EV -6.72%E -2.62%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-23 06:09
BetUS🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -2.11%E -1.37%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -7.08%E -2.78%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-20 22:40
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -3.39%E -2.23%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -7.08%E -2.78%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 06:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.83%E -5.40%K -17.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -7.08%E -2.78%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-22 17:20
Everygame🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -7.83%E -5.40%K -17.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -7.08%E -2.78%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-23 02:09
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -2.75%E -1.80%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.91%E -3.56%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-23 04:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.66%E -3.10%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.91%E -3.56%K -5.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-22 22:29
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.66%E -3.10%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.91%E -3.56%K -5.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-22 22:28
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.09%EV -3.39%E -2.23%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 37.91%EV -9.27%E -3.72%K -6.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-23 05:49
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -4.66%E -3.10%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -14.37%E -6.12%K -10.65%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-22 05:10
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -4.66%E -3.10%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -14.37%E -6.12%K -10.65%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-22 05:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.20%EV -10.38%E -7.36%K -25.31%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 37.80%EV -15.46%E -6.67%K -11.72%G +0.000%14.0%2026-05-22 21:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.48%EV -6.56%E -4.46%K -13.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.52%EV -18.02%E -8.01%K -14.41%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-23 06:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.45%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.55%0.5%2026-05-23 06:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 65.45%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.55%0.5%2026-05-23 06:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 64.67%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33%1.1%2026-05-23 06:10