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Geelong Cats v North Melbourne Kangaroos
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Geelong Cats (Local)
Prediction 76.76%1.30fair odd
EV -4.05%
Edge -3.24%
Kelly -16.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.75%76.77%76.68%79.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.221.231.2586.96%81.94%81.63%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit)
Prediction 23.24%4.30fair odd
EV +6.91%
Edge +1.50%
Kelly +1.92%
Growth +0.133%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.69%23.23%23.32%26.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.404.074.204.6029.41%24.57%23.81%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Geelong Cats (Local): 76.76%; North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit): 23.24%. For North Melbourne Kangaroos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.91%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -7.89%E -6.57%K -39.44%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV +6.91%E +1.50%K +1.92%G +0.133% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 06:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -9.42%E -7.99%K -52.36%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV +2.26%E +0.513%K +0.664%G +0.015% | 7.5% | 2026-05-02 05:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.96%EV -5.59%E -4.54%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV +1.10%E +0.252%K +0.327%G +0.004% | 4.3% | 2026-05-01 00:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 78.32%EV -8.66%E -7.27%K -45.56%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.68%EV -0.065%E -0.015%K -0.020%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-02 06:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -9.42%E -7.99%K -52.36%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -0.065%E -0.015%K -0.020%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-02 04:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.35%E -5.21%K -28.88%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -1.23%E -0.289%K -0.378%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 00:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.35%E -5.21%K -28.88%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -1.23%E -0.289%K -0.378%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 00:05 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.35%E -5.21%K -28.88%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -1.23%E -0.289%K -0.378%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-02 06:31 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.59%E -4.54%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -2.39%E -0.569%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 21:44 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.59%E -4.54%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -2.39%E -0.569%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 22:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.59%E -4.54%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -2.39%E -0.569%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 00:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.59%E -4.54%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -2.39%E -0.569%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 00:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.59%E -4.54%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -2.39%E -0.569%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 00:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.59%E -4.54%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -2.39%E -0.569%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-02 00:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.35%E -5.21%K -28.88%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -2.39%E -0.569%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-02 02:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.35%E -5.21%K -28.88%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -4.71%E -1.15%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-02 04:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.70%EV -5.59%E -4.54%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.30%EV -5.88%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-02 05:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.05%E -3.24%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -7.04%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-02 00:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.35%E -5.21%K -28.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.04%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-01 00:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.35%E -5.21%K -28.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -7.04%E -1.76%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-01 00:03 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -5.59%E -4.54%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -8.20%E -2.08%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-02 00:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.92%EV -4.05%E -3.24%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 3.94I 25.38%NM 24.08%EV -8.43%E -2.14%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-02 03:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -4.05%E -3.24%K -16.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -12.85%E -3.43%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-01 00:03 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.35%E -5.21%K -28.88%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -12.85%E -3.43%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-02 06:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 76.29%EV -11.73%E -10.20%K -78.18%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.71%EV -14.01%E -3.79%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-02 00:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -4.82%E -3.89%K -20.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -16.33%E -4.54%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 00:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.38%EV -4.82%E -3.89%K -20.08%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -16.33%E -4.54%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-02 00:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.75%EV -7.12%E -5.89%K -33.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -20.98%E -6.17%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-02 06:21 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43% | 0.5% | 2026-05-02 06:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.57% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43% | 0.5% | 2026-05-02 06:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-05-02 06:30 |