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Geelong Cats v Fremantle Dockers

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 05:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Geelong Cats (Local)

Prediction 66.77%1.50fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -3.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.82%66.39%66.47%69.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.411.411.4774.63%70.98%70.92%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fremantle Dockers (Visit)

Prediction 33.23%3.01fair odd
EV +3.01%
Edge +0.972%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.49%33.61%33.53%37.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.832.883.1040.82%35.30%34.72%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Geelong Cats (Local): 66.77%; Fremantle Dockers (Visit): 33.23%. For Fremantle Dockers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -7.19%E -5.17%K -18.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV +3.01%E +0.972%K +1.43%G +0.043%4.2%2026-03-14 04:59
Bet Right🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -9.19%E -6.76%K -25.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +3.01%E +0.972%K +1.43%G +0.043%5.8%2026-03-14 05:05
DraftKings🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -8.52%E -6.22%K -23.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV +1.35%E +0.443%K +0.659%G +0.009%5.8%2026-03-14 04:54
SportsBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -8.52%E -6.22%K -23.04%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV +0.354%E +0.117%K +0.175%G +0.001%6.1%2026-03-14 05:05
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.41%EV -7.19%E -5.17%K -18.43%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.59%EV +0.022%E +0.007%K +0.011%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 05:10
BetUS🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -5.19%E -3.65%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -0.310%E -0.103%K -0.155%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-13 21:30
TAB🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -0.310%E -0.103%K -0.155%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-14 04:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -7.86%E -5.69%K -20.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -0.310%E -0.103%K -0.155%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-14 05:05
TABtouch🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.85%E -4.15%K -14.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -3.63%E -1.25%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 05:09
Grosvenor🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.85%E -4.15%K -14.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -3.63%E -1.25%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 05:09
Casumo🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.85%E -4.15%K -14.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -3.63%E -1.25%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 05:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -5.85%E -4.15%K -14.28%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -3.63%E -1.25%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 05:10
Everygame🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -9.19%E -6.76%K -25.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -3.63%E -1.25%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-14 05:04
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.30%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -4.30%E -1.49%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 05:05
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -6.52%E -4.66%K -16.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -5.29%E -1.86%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-14 05:09
Dabble (AU)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.54%EV -8.52%E -6.22%K -23.04%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -5.29%E -1.86%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-14 05:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 66.90%EV -7.19%E -5.17%K -18.43%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.10%EV -6.62%E -2.36%K -3.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-14 05:05
Coolbet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -3.85%E -2.67%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -6.96%E -2.48%K -3.86%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-14 05:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -1.85%E -1.26%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -10.28%E -3.81%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 04:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -2.52%E -1.72%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -10.28%E -3.81%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-13 23:19
Neds🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -2.52%E -1.72%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -10.28%E -3.81%K -6.05%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-13 23:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.85%E -2.67%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -10.28%E -3.81%K -6.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 23:25
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.85%E -2.67%K -8.75%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -10.28%E -3.81%K -6.05%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-12 23:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.73%EV -10.53%E -7.86%K -30.96%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 34.27%EV -14.60%E -5.68%K -9.30%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-14 05:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -3.18%E -2.20%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -15.26%E -5.99%K -9.85%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-11 07:35
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.82%EV -3.18%E -2.20%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -18.59%E -7.59%K -12.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 03:09
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.82%EV -3.18%E -2.20%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -18.59%E -7.59%K -12.82%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-14 03:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-03-14 05:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-03-14 05:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-03-14 05:05