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Geelong Cats v Carlton Blues

Kickoff: 2026-09-04 09:42 UTC

Final: Geelong Cats 107–74 Carlton Blues

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Geelong Cats (Local)

Prediction 62.29%1.61fair odd
EV +0.279%
Edge +0.174%
Kelly +0.458%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.29%62.32%62.20%65.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.511.511.6170.92%66.26%66.23%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carlton Blues (Visit)

Prediction 37.71%2.65fair odd
EV +3.72%
Edge +1.35%
Kelly +2.12%
Growth +0.079%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.68%37.68%37.80%41.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.502.502.7544.44%40.07%40.00%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Geelong Cats (Local): 62.29%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 37.71%. For Carlton Blues (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.65. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.72%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -9.06%E -6.21%K -19.70%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV +3.72%E +1.35%K +2.12%G +0.079%4.9%2026-09-04 09:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.82%E -5.28%K -16.29%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -0.056%E -0.021%K -0.034%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 08:19
Pinnacle🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -6.57%E -4.38%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -0.433%E -0.164%K -0.264%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-04 08:35
Bet Right🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -5.33%E -3.50%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -1.94%E -0.747%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-04 09:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.57%E -4.38%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.94%E -0.747%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 08:20
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.57%E -4.38%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.94%E -0.747%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 08:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.33%E -3.50%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.83%E -1.50%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 09:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.95%E -3.94%K -11.66%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -3.83%E -1.50%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 09:25
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.95%E -3.94%K -11.66%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -3.83%E -1.50%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 09:25
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.95%E -3.94%K -11.66%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -3.83%E -1.50%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 09:25
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -5.95%E -3.94%K -11.66%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -3.83%E -1.50%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 09:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -8.44%E -5.74%K -17.96%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -3.83%E -1.50%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 09:35
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -6.57%E -4.38%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV -4.58%E -1.81%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 09:29
Coolbet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.08%E -2.65%K -7.56%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-04 09:29
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.70%E -3.07%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 09:30
TAB🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.70%E -3.07%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-04 09:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.33%E -3.50%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-04 09:35
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.95%E -3.94%K -11.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 09:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.82%E -5.28%K -16.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -5.71%E -2.29%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 07:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -5.33%E -3.50%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -7.60%E -3.10%K -5.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 09:25
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -5.33%E -3.50%K -10.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -7.60%E -3.10%K -5.24%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 09:25
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -6.57%E -4.38%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -11.37%E -4.84%K -8.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 15:39
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -6.57%E -4.38%K -13.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -11.37%E -4.84%K -8.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 15:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.20%EV -12.18%E -8.64%K -29.70%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 37.80%EV -12.50%E -5.39%K -9.47%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-04 09:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.85%EV -7.82%E -5.28%K -16.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -13.26%E -5.76%K -10.20%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-04 09:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV +0.279%E +0.174%K +0.458%G +0.001%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -15.14%E -6.73%K -12.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-02 02:20
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV +0.279%E +0.174%K +0.458%G +0.001%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -15.14%E -6.73%K -12.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-02 05:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92%0.3%2026-09-04 09:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92%0.3%2026-09-04 09:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09%0.6%2026-09-04 09:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.42%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.32%8.5%2026-09-03 15:40