The School of Odds
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Fremantle Dockers v West Coast Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-07-24 10:11 UTC

Final: Fremantle Dockers 112–42 West Coast Eagles

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fremantle Dockers (Local)

Prediction 90.82%1.10fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -3.52%
Kelly -62.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
87.33%90.71%90.74%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.041.041.06100.00%96.23%96.15%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

West Coast Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 9.18%10.90fair odd
EV +14.73%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.189%

assuming max odds 12.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.41%9.29%9.26%12.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.1010.1510.0012.5014.08%9.85%10.00%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fremantle Dockers (Local): 90.82%; West Coast Eagles (Visit): 9.18%. For West Coast Eagles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.90. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.73%.

4 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.32%EV -5.55%E -5.33%K -138.63%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV +14.73%E +1.18%K +1.28%G +0.189%4.2%2026-07-24 06:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 92.59%EV -9.18%E -9.18%K +0.000%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.41%EV +14.73%E +1.18%K +1.28%G +0.189%8.0%2026-07-24 10:09
PlayUp🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -6.45%E -6.27%K -215.11%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV +10.14%E +0.845%K +0.922%G +0.093%5.4%2026-07-24 08:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -6.45%E -6.27%K -215.11%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV +10.14%E +0.845%K +0.922%G +0.093%5.4%2026-07-24 09:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.63%EV -4.64%E -4.42%K -92.74%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.37%EV +5.55%E +0.482%K +0.528%G +0.029%3.9%2026-07-24 09:35
TAB🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.55%E -5.33%K -138.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +0.959%E +0.087%K +0.096%G +0.001%5.2%2026-07-24 09:35
Paddy Power🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.55%E -5.33%K -138.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +0.959%E +0.087%K +0.096%G +0.001%5.2%2026-07-24 10:10
Dabble (AU)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.55%E -5.33%K -138.63%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +0.959%E +0.087%K +0.096%G +0.001%5.2%2026-07-24 09:55
Pinnacle🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.16%EV -5.55%E -5.33%K -138.63%G +0.000%10.72I 9.33%NM 8.84%EV -1.61%E -0.150%K -0.166%G +0.000%5.5%2026-07-24 10:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.64%E -4.42%K -92.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -8.22%E -0.822%K -0.913%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-23 09:20
Neds🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.64%E -4.42%K -92.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -8.22%E -0.822%K -0.913%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-23 09:19
SportsBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.55%E -5.33%K -138.63%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -8.22%E -0.822%K -0.913%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-24 09:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -7.36%E -7.22%K -368.08%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -8.22%E -0.822%K -0.913%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-24 04:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.61%EV -8.27%E -8.19%K -826.99%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.39%EV -10.51%E -1.08%K -1.20%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-24 10:10
Coolbet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.73%E -3.52%K -62.15%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -12.81%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-23 22:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.64%E -4.42%K -92.74%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -12.81%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 10:10
Casumo🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.64%E -4.42%K -92.74%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -12.81%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-24 10:10
Grosvenor🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.55%E -5.33%K -138.63%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -12.81%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-24 10:10
TABtouch🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.55%E -5.33%K -138.63%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -12.81%E -1.35%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-24 10:10
Coral🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.64%E -4.42%K -92.74%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -17.40%E -1.93%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 23:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.64%E -4.42%K -92.74%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -17.40%E -1.93%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-23 23:05
Everygame🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 89.73%EV -6.45%E -6.27%K -215.11%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.27%EV -17.40%E -1.93%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-24 09:45
DraftKings🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -3.73%E -3.52%K -62.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -26.58%E -3.32%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-07-24 10:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 87.33%EV -6.45%E -6.27%K -215.11%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 12.67%EV -34.84%E -4.91%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.2%2026-07-24 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 95.49%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.51%0.7%2026-07-24 09:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 95.49%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.51%0.7%2026-07-24 10:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 95.28%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.72%0.9%2026-07-24 10:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (4)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.67%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%46.00I 2.17%NM 2.02%7.4%2026-07-24 10:10
LeoVegas🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.28%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.80%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.9%2026-07-24 02:49
Betsson🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 86.17%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.90%10.5%2026-07-24 10:09
NordicBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 86.17%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.93%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.90%10.5%2026-07-24 10:10