Language:English
Fremantle Dockers v St Kilda Saints
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fremantle Dockers (Local)
Prediction 74.57%1.34fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -13.13%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.59%74.37%74.24%76.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.261.261.2984.75%79.46%79.37%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
St Kilda Saints (Visit)
Prediction 25.43%3.93fair odd
EV +4.27%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.059%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.36%25.63%25.76%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.693.754.1031.75%27.06%26.67%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fremantle Dockers (Local): 74.57%; St Kilda Saints (Visit): 25.43%. For St Kilda Saints (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.93. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.27%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +4.27%E +1.04%K +1.38%G +0.059% | 4.4% | 2026-05-22 10:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +1.73%E +0.432%K +0.576%G +0.010% | 5.0% | 2026-05-22 10:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +1.73%E +0.432%K +0.576%G +0.010% | 5.0% | 2026-05-22 10:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -6.04%E -4.80%K -23.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -0.814%E -0.209%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-22 09:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -6.04%E -4.80%K -23.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -0.814%E -0.209%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-22 09:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -6.04%E -4.80%K -23.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -0.814%E -0.209%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-22 09:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -6.04%E -4.80%K -23.25%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -0.814%E -0.209%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-22 09:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -0.814%E -0.209%K -0.281%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-22 10:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -6.04%E -4.80%K -23.25%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.09%E -0.542%K -0.732%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-22 08:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -6.04%E -4.80%K -23.25%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -2.09%E -0.542%K -0.732%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-22 09:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -6.04%E -4.80%K -23.25%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -3.36%E -0.884%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-22 03:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -6.04%E -4.80%K -23.25%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -3.36%E -0.884%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-22 03:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -9.03%E -7.40%K -41.03%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -3.36%E -0.884%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-21 09:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.04%E -4.80%K -23.25%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -4.63%E -1.23%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-22 10:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.00%EV -7.54%E -6.08%K -31.40%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.00%EV -5.39%E -1.45%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-22 03:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -6.04%E -4.80%K -23.25%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.90%E -1.59%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-22 04:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.98%EV -4.55%E -3.56%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.02%EV -7.43%E -2.04%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-22 08:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.30%E -4.17%K -19.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -8.44%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-22 08:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.04%E -4.80%K -23.25%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.44%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-22 04:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -6.04%E -4.80%K -23.25%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.44%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-22 04:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.81%E -2.95%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -10.99%E -3.14%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-21 23:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -3.81%E -2.95%K -13.13%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -10.99%E -3.14%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-21 22:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 74.24%EV -12.01%E -10.18%K -66.72%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.76%EV -13.53%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-05-22 06:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -4.55%E -3.56%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -16.07%E -4.87%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-22 02:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -4.55%E -3.56%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -16.07%E -4.87%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-22 02:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -4.55%E -3.56%K -16.26%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -16.07%E -4.87%K -6.99%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-22 07:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.59%EV -6.79%E -5.43%K -27.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.41%EV -19.89%E -6.31%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-22 10:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.85% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.15% | 0.3% | 2026-05-22 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-05-22 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.0% | 2026-05-22 10:20 |