The School of Odds
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Fremantle Dockers v Hawthorn Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-09-03 10:12 UTC

Final: Fremantle Dockers 40–72 Hawthorn Hawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fremantle Dockers (Local)

Prediction 64.90%1.54fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -5.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.59%64.86%65.11%66.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.441.441.5074.07%69.41%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hawthorn Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 35.10%2.85fair odd
EV +0.023%
Edge +0.008%
Kelly +0.012%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.72%35.14%34.89%36.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.522.712.712.8539.68%36.83%36.90%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fremantle Dockers (Local): 64.90%; Hawthorn Hawks (Visit): 35.10%. For Hawthorn Hawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.849. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.850, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.023%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -5.89%E -4.06%K -13.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV +0.023%E +0.008%K +0.012%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-03 10:06
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.19%E -5.03%K -16.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -1.73%E -0.619%K -0.962%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 01:19
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.19%E -5.03%K -16.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -1.73%E -0.619%K -0.962%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 10:05
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.19%E -5.03%K -16.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -1.73%E -0.619%K -0.962%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 01:19
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.19%E -5.03%K -16.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -1.73%E -0.619%K -0.962%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-02 01:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.19%E -5.03%K -16.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -1.73%E -0.619%K -0.962%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 08:10
PlayUp🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -7.19%E -5.03%K -16.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -1.73%E -0.619%K -0.962%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-03 09:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 65.32%EV -5.24%E -3.59%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -3.49%E -1.27%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-03 08:20
TAB🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.89%E -4.06%K -13.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.49%E -1.27%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 08:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -5.89%E -4.06%K -13.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -3.49%E -1.27%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-03 09:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.54%E -4.54%K -14.86%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -3.49%E -1.27%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-03 09:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -7.19%E -5.03%K -16.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -3.49%E -1.27%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 01:19
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -7.19%E -5.03%K -16.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -3.49%E -1.27%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-02 01:19
SportsBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.30%EV -6.54%E -4.54%K -14.86%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.70%EV -4.89%E -1.80%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-03 09:54
Neds🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.94%E -2.66%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.24%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 09:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -3.94%E -2.66%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -5.24%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-03 09:15
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -4.59%E -3.12%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV -5.24%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-03 06:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.54%E -4.54%K -14.86%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -5.24%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 04:55
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.54%E -4.54%K -14.86%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -5.24%E -1.94%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-02 05:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.45%EV -7.84%E -5.52%K -18.66%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.55%EV -5.59%E -2.08%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 08:30
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.10%EV -3.29%E -2.21%K -6.72%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.90%EV -6.65%E -2.50%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 10:09
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -7.84%E -5.52%K -18.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-02 08:30
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -7.84%E -5.52%K -18.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -7.00%E -2.64%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-02 08:30
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -2.64%E -1.76%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -8.05%E -3.07%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-03 09:10
DraftKings🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -4.59%E -3.12%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -8.75%E -3.37%K -5.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 10:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.72%EV -9.78%E -7.04%K -25.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.28%EV -10.51%E -4.12%K -6.78%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-03 10:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.12%EV -12.38%E -9.17%K -35.37%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 34.88%EV -11.56%E -4.59%K -7.60%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-03 08:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48%0.2%2026-09-03 09:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18%0.4%2026-09-03 10:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%0.5%2026-09-03 10:10

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.37%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.49%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.14%9.4%2026-09-03 07:40