The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Fremantle Dockers v Gold Coast Suns

Kickoff: 2026-06-28 07:10 UTC

Final: Fremantle Dockers 80–29 Gold Coast Suns

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fremantle Dockers (Local)

Prediction 80.16%1.25fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -3.17%
Kelly -19.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.95%80.22%80.19%82.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.171.181.2090.91%85.21%84.75%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gold Coast Suns (Visit)

Prediction 19.84%5.04fair odd
EV +3.17%
Edge +0.610%
Kelly +0.755%
Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.85%19.78%19.81%22.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.684.715.2024.39%21.38%21.23%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fremantle Dockers (Local): 80.16%; Gold Coast Suns (Visit): 19.84%. For Gold Coast Suns (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.15%EV -9.42%E -8.34%K -72.46%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV +3.17%E +0.610%K +0.755%G +0.024%7.7%2026-06-28 06:48
Bet Right🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.41%E -4.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -0.797%E -0.159%K -0.199%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-28 06:29
PlayUp🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.21%E -5.31%K -36.55%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -0.797%E -0.159%K -0.199%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-28 01:20
TABtouch🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.41%E -4.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -2.78%E -0.568%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-28 06:29
Casumo🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.41%E -4.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -2.78%E -0.568%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-28 06:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.41%E -4.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -2.78%E -0.568%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-28 06:30
Grosvenor🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.41%E -4.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -2.78%E -0.568%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-28 06:29
Coolbet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -4.61%E -3.87%K -24.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -4.77%E -0.993%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-28 03:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.41%E -4.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.77%E -0.993%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-28 06:29
Neds🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.41%E -4.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.77%E -0.993%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-28 06:29
TAB🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.41%E -4.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.77%E -0.993%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-28 06:59
DraftKings🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.41%E -4.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -4.77%E -0.993%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-28 06:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -6.21%E -5.31%K -36.55%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -5.76%E -1.21%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-28 06:30
Pinnacle🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.00%EV -5.41%E -4.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%4.72I 21.19%NM 20.00%EV -6.35%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-28 07:00
BetUS🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.61%E -3.87%K -24.26%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -6.75%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-25 13:30
SportsBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.41%E -4.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -6.75%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-28 06:19
Tipico (DE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.34%EV -7.82%E -6.80%K -52.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV -6.75%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-27 18:59
Paddy Power🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.81%E -3.17%K -19.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.72%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-25 12:10
Dabble (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.81%E -3.17%K -19.04%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -10.72%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-28 06:59
Unibet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.41%E -4.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -10.72%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-28 06:29
Betr (AU)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.41%E -4.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -10.72%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-26 01:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.41%E -4.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -10.72%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-27 22:39
Coral🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.41%E -4.59%K -30.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -10.72%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-27 22:39
Everygame🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -7.02%E -6.05%K -43.84%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -10.72%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-28 05:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.00%EV -11.82%E -10.75%K -118.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.00%EV -12.70%E -2.89%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.6%2026-06-28 05:10
NordicBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.61%EV -6.21%E -5.31%K -36.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -14.69%E -3.42%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-26 01:30
Betsson🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.61%EV -6.21%E -5.31%K -36.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.39%EV -14.69%E -3.42%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.7%2026-06-26 01:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 77.95%EV -7.02%E -6.05%K -43.84%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -18.65%E -4.55%K -6.02%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-28 06:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03%0.8%2026-06-28 06:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03%0.8%2026-06-28 06:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03%0.8%2026-06-28 06:40