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Essendon Bombers v Hawthorn Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-03-13 08:41 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Essendon Bombers (Local)

Prediction 19.26%5.19fair odd
EV +7.88%
Edge +1.41%
Kelly +1.71%
Growth +0.135%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.16%19.09%19.33%22.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.964.885.6023.53%20.16%20.51%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hawthorn Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 80.74%1.24fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -6.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.70%80.91%80.67%82.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.161.161.2290.91%85.93%86.21%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Essendon Bombers (Local): 19.26%; Hawthorn Hawks (Visit): 80.74%. For Essendon Bombers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.19. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.88%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV +7.88%E +1.41%K +1.71%G +0.135%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -6.35%E -5.47%K -39.66%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-13 08:30
TAB🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +5.95%E +1.08%K +1.32%G +0.079%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.15%E -6.22%K -47.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 08:19
TABtouch🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +5.95%E +1.08%K +1.32%G +0.079%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.15%E -6.22%K -47.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 08:35
Grosvenor🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +5.95%E +1.08%K +1.32%G +0.079%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.15%E -6.22%K -47.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 08:35
Casumo🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +5.95%E +1.08%K +1.32%G +0.079%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.15%E -6.22%K -47.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 08:35
Unibet (NL)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +5.95%E +1.08%K +1.32%G +0.079%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.15%E -6.22%K -47.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 08:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +5.95%E +1.08%K +1.32%G +0.079%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -7.15%E -6.22%K -47.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-13 08:30
Bet Right🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV +1.14%E +0.216%K +0.267%G +0.003%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -6.35%E -5.47%K -39.66%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-13 08:39
Pinnacle🎯5.04I 19.84%NM 18.71%EV -2.91%E -0.577%K -0.720%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.29%EV -6.35%E -5.47%K -39.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-13 08:39
DraftKings🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.61%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.73%E -4.01%K -26.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 08:19
Betr (AU)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -5.61%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -4.73%E -4.01%K -26.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-13 08:29
Marathon Bet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -5.61%E -1.14%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -7.15%E -6.22%K -47.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-13 08:39
SportsBet🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.44%EV -6.57%E -1.35%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.56%EV -5.54%E -4.73%K -32.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-13 08:10
Coolbet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -7.53%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -3.92%E -3.30%K -20.65%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-13 08:04
Neds🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -7.53%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.73%E -4.01%K -26.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 05:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -7.53%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -4.73%E -4.01%K -26.29%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 05:24
Tipico (DE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -7.53%E -1.57%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%EV -7.15%E -6.22%K -47.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-13 08:40
Dabble (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -8.50%E -1.79%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.51%EV -7.15%E -6.22%K -47.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-13 08:20
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -13.31%E -2.96%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.12%E -2.60%K -15.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-13 04:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.31%E -2.96%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.54%E -4.73%K -32.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-13 04:10
Coral🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -13.31%E -2.96%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -5.54%E -4.73%K -32.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-13 04:10
Everygame🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -13.31%E -2.96%K -3.80%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -6.35%E -5.47%K -39.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-13 04:09
NetBet (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.00%EV -15.24%E -3.46%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 80.00%EV -11.19%E -10.17%K -111.90%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-13 07:39
BetUS🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -18.13%E -4.27%K -5.58%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -1.50%E -1.23%K -6.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-12 12:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.88%1.16I 86.21%NM 86.12%0.1%2026-03-13 08:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.00I 14.29%NM 14.22%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.78%0.5%2026-03-13 08:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%1.16I 86.21%NM 85.43%0.9%2026-03-13 08:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Unibet🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.46%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.40%6.6%2026-03-13 08:40
NordicBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.41%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%9.0%2026-03-13 08:40
Betsson🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.41%125.00I 0.80%NM 0.73%9.0%2026-03-13 08:40