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Essendon Bombers v Fremantle Dockers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Essendon Bombers (Local)
Prediction 21.44%4.66fair odd
EV +7.22%
Edge +1.44%
Kelly +1.81%
Growth +0.130%
assuming max odds 5.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.96%21.22%21.39%23.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.464.505.0026.32%22.44%22.22%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fremantle Dockers (Visit)
Prediction 78.56%1.27fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -3.41%
Kelly -18.92%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.46%78.78%78.61%81.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.191.201.2289.29%84.01%83.33%81.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Essendon Bombers (Local): 21.44%; Fremantle Dockers (Visit): 78.56%. For Essendon Bombers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.66. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.22%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +7.22%E +1.44%K +1.81%G +0.130% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -8.09%E -6.91%K -47.59%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-16 12:14 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +2.94%E +0.612%K +0.772%G +0.023% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%EV -9.66%E -8.40%K -64.41%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-17 03:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV +1.86%E +0.392%K +0.497%G +0.009% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -6.52%E -5.48%K -34.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 00:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV +1.86%E +0.392%K +0.497%G +0.009% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -6.52%E -5.48%K -34.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 00:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV +1.86%E +0.392%K +0.497%G +0.009% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -8.09%E -6.91%K -47.59%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-16 22:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV +1.86%E +0.392%K +0.497%G +0.009% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -8.09%E -6.91%K -47.59%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-16 22:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.66%EV +0.791%E +0.168%K +0.214%G +0.002% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.34%EV -9.66%E -8.40%K -64.41%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-16 10:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -1.35%E -0.294%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.73%E -4.78%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 03:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -1.35%E -0.294%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.73%E -4.78%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 03:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -1.35%E -0.294%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.73%E -4.78%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 03:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -1.35%E -0.294%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.73%E -4.78%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 03:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -1.35%E -0.294%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.73%E -4.78%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 02:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -1.35%E -0.294%K -0.376%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -5.73%E -4.78%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 03:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -3.50%E -0.777%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -4.95%E -4.09%K -23.56%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-17 03:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.50%E -0.777%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.73%E -4.78%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-17 02:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.43I 22.57%NM 21.31%EV -5.00%E -1.13%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.69%EV -5.73%E -4.78%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 02:50 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -5.64%E -1.28%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -4.16%E -3.41%K -18.92%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-17 02:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.64%E -1.28%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.73%E -4.78%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-17 02:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -6.71%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.38%EV -5.73%E -4.78%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-17 03:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -7.79%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.16%E -3.41%K -18.92%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-17 02:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -7.79%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -4.16%E -3.41%K -18.92%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-17 03:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -7.79%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -5.73%E -4.78%K -28.67%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-17 02:35 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV -7.79%E -1.81%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.47%EV -7.30%E -6.19%K -40.58%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-17 02:44 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.46%EV -12.08%E -2.95%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 78.54%EV -12.02%E -10.73%K -100.15%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-17 02:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -14.22%E -3.56%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -4.16%E -3.41%K -18.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 02:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -14.22%E -3.56%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -6.52%E -5.48%K -34.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-17 00:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.93%EV -14.22%E -3.56%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.07%EV -6.52%E -5.48%K -34.31%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-17 00:24 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.54%EV -18.51%E -4.87%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.46%EV -8.09%E -6.91%K -47.59%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-17 02:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 1.0% | 2026-05-17 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 1.0% | 2026-05-17 03:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 77.99% | 1.0% | 2026-05-17 03:05 |