The School of Odds
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Collingwood Magpies v West Coast Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 06:35 UTC

Final: Collingwood Magpies 92–82 West Coast Eagles

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Collingwood Magpies (Local)

Prediction 89.69%1.11fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -3.77%
Kelly -57.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.11%89.44%89.83%91.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.051.051.0799.01%95.20%95.24%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

West Coast Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 10.31%9.70fair odd
EV +16.00%
Edge +1.42%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.250%

assuming max odds 11.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.24%10.56%10.17%14.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.008.979.0011.2516.67%11.15%11.11%8.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Collingwood Magpies (Local): 89.69%; West Coast Eagles (Visit): 10.31%. For West Coast Eagles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.70. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.76%EV -9.41%E -9.32%K -941.39%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.24%EV +16.00%E +1.42%K +1.56%G +0.250%7.9%2026-05-23 06:09
Neds🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.72%E -6.46%K -168.08%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +13.42%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180%5.2%2026-05-23 03:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.72%E -6.46%K -168.08%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +13.42%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180%5.2%2026-05-23 03:09
PlayUp🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.72%E -6.46%K -168.08%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +13.42%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180%5.2%2026-05-23 06:29
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.53%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +3.11%E +0.311%K +0.345%G +0.011%5.2%2026-05-23 05:09
Bet Right🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.53%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +3.11%E +0.311%K +0.345%G +0.011%5.2%2026-05-22 22:59
Dabble (AU)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.16%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.05%E -0.215%K -0.241%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-22 00:29
SportsBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -2.05%E -0.215%K -0.241%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 05:09
DraftKings🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.53%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -2.05%E -0.215%K -0.241%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 03:09
Pinnacle🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.01%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.53%G +0.000%9.46I 10.57%NM 9.99%EV -2.46%E -0.260%K -0.291%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-23 06:19
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.16%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-22 21:18
TAB🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.16%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-22 08:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.16%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 06:19
TABtouch🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.16%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 06:19
Grosvenor🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.16%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 06:19
Unibet (NL)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.16%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 06:19
Casumo🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.16%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-23 06:19
NetBet (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 89.65%EV -9.41%E -9.32%K -941.39%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.35%EV -9.78%E -1.12%K -1.26%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-23 06:29
Coolbet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.05%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.61%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.95%EV -10.30%E -1.18%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-23 03:59
Everygame🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -6.72%E -6.46%K -168.08%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -12.36%E -1.45%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-23 06:19
Unibet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -17.51%E -2.19%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 03:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -17.51%E -2.19%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-21 23:30
Coral🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -17.51%E -2.19%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-21 23:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.53%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -17.51%E -2.19%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-21 07:00
Betsson🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 86.09%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.53%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -32.98%E -5.07%K -6.00%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-22 22:40
NordicBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 86.09%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.53%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -32.98%E -5.07%K -6.00%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-22 22:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 85.11%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.53%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -38.13%E -6.36%K -7.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-23 06:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21%0.6%2026-05-23 06:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21%0.6%2026-05-23 06:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 93.60%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.40%0.8%2026-05-23 06:30