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Collingwood Magpies v Brisbane Lions

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 09:41 UTC

Final: Collingwood Magpies 96–159 Brisbane Lions

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Collingwood Magpies (Local)

Prediction 30.67%3.26fair odd
EV +16.53%
Edge +4.35%
Kelly +5.90%
Growth +0.976%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.30%30.60%31.01%36.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.623.153.003.8038.17%31.76%33.33%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brisbane Lions (Visit)

Prediction 69.33%1.44fair odd
EV +4.70%
Edge +3.11%
Kelly +9.21%
Growth +0.432%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.44%69.40%68.99%75.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.351.371.5181.97%73.89%73.26%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Collingwood Magpies (Local): 30.67%; Brisbane Lions (Visit): 69.33%. For Collingwood Magpies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.53%.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV +16.53%E +4.35%K +5.90%G +0.976%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -15.41%E -12.63%K -70.05%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-20 09:45
Grosvenor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +10.39%E +2.89%K +4.00%G +0.416%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -10.56%E -8.18%K -36.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 06:59
Unibet (NL)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +10.39%E +2.89%K +4.00%G +0.416%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -10.56%E -8.18%K -36.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 06:59
TABtouch🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +10.39%E +2.89%K +4.00%G +0.416%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -10.56%E -8.18%K -36.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 06:59
Casumo🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +10.39%E +2.89%K +4.00%G +0.416%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -10.56%E -8.18%K -36.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 06:59
Coral🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +7.33%E +2.09%K +2.93%G +0.215%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -11.25%E -8.79%K -40.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-20 22:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +7.33%E +2.09%K +2.93%G +0.215%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -11.25%E -8.79%K -40.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-20 22:50
Marathon Bet🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 26.74%EV +6.71%E +1.93%K +2.71%G +0.182%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.26%EV -11.94%E -9.41%K -44.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-21 09:14
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV +5.80%E +1.68%K +2.37%G +0.137%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -10.56%E -8.18%K -36.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-21 06:59
Coolbet🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -5.86%E -1.91%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -4.32%E -3.13%K -11.36%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-21 09:39
SportsBet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 31.07%EV -6.78%E -2.23%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.93%EV -5.01%E -3.66%K -13.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-21 09:35
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.00%E -2.67%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-21 09:39
TAB🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.00%E -2.67%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.33%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-21 09:40
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.00%E -2.67%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.70%E -4.19%K -15.85%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-21 09:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -9.54%E -3.23%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.32%E -3.13%K -11.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-21 09:40
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -11.07%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-21 09:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -11.07%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-21 09:34
Dabble (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -11.07%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-21 09:30
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -11.07%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.24%E -1.59%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 09:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.99%EV -12.60%E -4.42%K -6.81%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 69.01%EV -11.25%E -8.79%K -40.18%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-21 09:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.85%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -0.158%E -0.110%K -0.359%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-21 09:19
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.85%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -0.158%E -0.110%K -0.359%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-21 09:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.33%EV -17.20%E -6.37%K -10.12%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.67%EV -6.40%E -4.74%K -18.28%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-21 09:34
Pinnacle🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -19.66%E -7.50%K -12.13%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV +4.70%E +3.11%K +9.21%G +0.432%4.4%2026-08-21 09:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67%1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33%0.2%2026-08-21 09:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67%1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33%0.4%2026-08-21 09:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%0.8%2026-08-21 09:39

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.50%80.00I 1.25%NM 1.16%8.2%2026-08-21 07:35
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.32%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.76%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.6%2026-08-21 09:40
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.32%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.76%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.6%2026-08-21 09:39