语言:简体中文
Collingwood Magpies v Brisbane Lions
收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →
胜负盘
Collingwood Magpies (主队)
预测 30.67%3.26公平赔率
EV +16.53%
优势 +4.35%
Kelly +5.90%
增长率 +0.976%
假设最高赔率为 3.80
博彩公司预测分布
24.30%30.60%31.01%36.56%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.623.153.003.8038.17%31.76%33.33%26.32%最小值均值中位数最大值
Brisbane Lions (客队)
预测 69.33%1.44公平赔率
EV +4.70%
优势 +3.11%
Kelly +9.21%
增长率 +0.432%
假设最高赔率为 1.51
博彩公司预测分布
63.44%69.40%68.99%75.70%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.221.351.371.5181.97%73.89%73.26%66.23%最小值均值中位数最大值
按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Collingwood Magpies (主队)：30.67%；Brisbane Lions (客队)：69.33%。 对于“Collingwood Magpies (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.26。 当时有9家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为3.80，对应+16.53%的正期望值。
有 3 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（3 个赛果，而分析采用 2 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。
博彩公司赔率 (24 家博彩公司)
我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。
| 博彩公司 | 主队 ▼ | 客队 | 利润率 | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV +16.53%E +4.35%K +5.90%G +0.976% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -15.41%E -12.63%K -70.05%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-20 09:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +10.39%E +2.89%K +4.00%G +0.416% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -10.56%E -8.18%K -36.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-21 06:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +10.39%E +2.89%K +4.00%G +0.416% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -10.56%E -8.18%K -36.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-21 06:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +10.39%E +2.89%K +4.00%G +0.416% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -10.56%E -8.18%K -36.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-21 06:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +10.39%E +2.89%K +4.00%G +0.416% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -10.56%E -8.18%K -36.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-21 06:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +7.33%E +2.09%K +2.93%G +0.215% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -11.25%E -8.79%K -40.18%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-20 22:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +7.33%E +2.09%K +2.93%G +0.215% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -11.25%E -8.79%K -40.18%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-20 22:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.74%EV +6.71%E +1.93%K +2.71%G +0.182% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.26%EV -11.94%E -9.41%K -44.24%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-21 09:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV +5.80%E +1.68%K +2.37%G +0.137% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -10.56%E -8.18%K -36.41%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-21 06:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -5.86%E -1.91%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -4.32%E -3.13%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-21 09:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.07%EV -6.78%E -2.23%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.93%EV -5.01%E -3.66%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-21 09:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.00%E -2.67%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-21 09:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.00%E -2.67%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.93%E -2.09%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-21 09:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.00%E -2.67%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.70%E -4.19%K -15.85%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-21 09:39 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -9.54%E -3.23%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.32%E -3.13%K -11.36%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-21 09:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -11.07%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-21 09:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -11.07%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-21 09:34 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -11.07%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -1.54%E -1.09%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-21 09:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -11.07%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -2.24%E -1.59%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-21 09:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 30.99%EV -12.60%E -4.42%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.01%EV -11.25%E -8.79%K -40.18%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-08-21 09:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -0.158%E -0.110%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-21 09:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -0.158%E -0.110%K -0.359%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-21 09:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.33%EV -17.20%E -6.37%K -10.12%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.67%EV -6.40%E -4.74%K -18.28%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-21 09:34 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.56%EV -19.66%E -7.50%K -12.13%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.44%EV +4.70%E +3.11%K +9.21%G +0.432% | 4.4% | 2026-08-21 09:30 |
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率
更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。
博彩交易所 (3)
| 博彩公司 | 主队 | 客队 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.67% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 68.33% | 0.2% | 2026-08-21 09:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 67.33% | 0.4% | 2026-08-21 09:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 0.8% | 2026-08-21 09:39 |
其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (3)
这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。
| 博彩公司 | 选项 1 | 选项 2 | 选项 3 | 利润率 ▲ | 更新时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.50% | 80.00I 1.25%NM 1.16% | 8.2% | 2026-08-21 07:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.32% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.76% | 100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92% | 8.6% | 2026-08-21 09:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.32% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.76% | 100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92% | 8.6% | 2026-08-21 09:39 |