The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Collingwood Magpies v Adelaide Crows

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 08:36 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Collingwood Magpies (Local)

Prediction 60.07%1.66fair odd
EV +2.73%
Edge +1.59%
Kelly +3.84%
Growth +0.105%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.52%60.04%59.62%65.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.561.531.7170.42%64.22%65.36%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adelaide Crows (Visit)

Prediction 39.93%2.50fair odd
EV +7.80%
Edge +2.89%
Kelly +4.59%
Growth +0.358%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.55%39.96%40.38%45.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.402.402.7048.78%41.70%41.67%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Collingwood Magpies (Local): 60.07%; Adelaide Crows (Visit): 39.93%. For Adelaide Crows (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.50. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.80%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -11.09%E -7.49%K -23.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV +7.80%E +2.89%K +4.59%G +0.358%4.6%2026-03-14 08:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.45%EV -14.69%E -10.35%K -34.99%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 34.55%EV +7.40%E +2.75%K +4.38%G +0.324%7.6%2026-03-14 08:34
TAB🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -9.89%E -6.59%K -19.78%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV +5.80%E +2.19%K +3.52%G +0.204%4.4%2026-03-14 08:34
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -8.69%E -5.72%K -16.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV +3.81%E +1.46%K +2.38%G +0.091%4.3%2026-03-14 08:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -9.89%E -6.59%K -19.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +3.81%E +1.46%K +2.38%G +0.091%5.1%2026-03-14 08:34
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -8.09%E -5.29%K -15.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV +1.81%E +0.710%K +1.17%G +0.021%4.6%2026-03-14 08:34
Casumo🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.09%E -5.29%K -15.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.186%E -0.074%K -0.124%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 08:35
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.09%E -5.29%K -15.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.186%E -0.074%K -0.124%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 08:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -8.09%E -5.29%K -15.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -0.186%E -0.074%K -0.124%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-14 08:35
Unibet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -8.69%E -5.72%K -16.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -2.18%E -0.891%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-14 08:35
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -9.29%E -6.15%K -18.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -2.18%E -0.891%K -1.50%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 08:35
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.52%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.18%E -1.74%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-14 08:34
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.09%E -5.29%K -15.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -4.18%E -1.74%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-14 08:35
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -9.89%E -6.59%K -19.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.18%E -1.74%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-14 08:34
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.88%E -2.43%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.17%E -2.63%K -4.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 08:34
Dabble (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.52%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.17%E -2.63%K -4.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-14 08:34
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.88%E -4.44%K -12.52%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.17%E -3.55%K -6.29%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-14 08:34
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -0.877%E -0.532%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -10.17%E -4.52%K -8.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 08:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -0.877%E -0.532%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -10.17%E -4.52%K -8.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-14 08:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -0.877%E -0.532%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -12.16%E -5.53%K -10.14%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 08:35
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -0.877%E -0.532%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -12.16%E -5.53%K -10.14%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 08:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.56%EV -9.89%E -6.59%K -19.78%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.44%EV -15.36%E -7.24%K -13.71%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-14 08:34
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV +2.73%E +1.59%K +3.84%G +0.105%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -16.16%E -7.69%K -14.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-14 08:35
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV +2.73%E +1.59%K +3.84%G +0.105%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -18.15%E -8.85%K -17.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-14 08:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 63.08%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.92%0.3%2026-03-14 08:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%0.5%2026-03-14 08:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 63.85%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.15%1.7%2026-03-14 08:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.66%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.42%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.5%2026-03-14 08:34
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.66%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.42%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.92%8.5%2026-03-14 08:35