The School of Odds
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Carlton Blues v St Kilda Saints

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 09:35 UTC

Final: Carlton Blues 69–108 St Kilda Saints

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carlton Blues (Local)

Prediction 40.41%2.47fair odd
EV +7.07%
Edge +2.67%
Kelly +4.29%
Growth +0.303%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.14%40.42%40.82%42.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.322.292.6546.51%43.07%43.67%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

St Kilda Saints (Visit)

Prediction 59.59%1.68fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -2.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.69%59.58%59.18%63.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.581.601.6568.03%63.26%62.50%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlton Blues (Local): 40.41%; St Kilda Saints (Visit): 59.59%. For Carlton Blues (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.07%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV +7.07%E +2.67%K +4.29%G +0.303%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -10.61%E -7.07%K -21.22%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-01 07:59
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV +5.05%E +1.94%K +3.16%G +0.160%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -11.80%E -7.97%K -24.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-01 00:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV +5.05%E +1.94%K +3.16%G +0.160%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -11.80%E -7.97%K -24.58%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-01 00:03
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -1.01%E -0.411%K -0.695%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -7.03%E -4.51%K -12.56%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 09:31
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.03%E -1.26%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.84%E -3.70%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 09:18
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -3.03%E -1.26%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -10.61%E -7.07%K -21.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 04:15
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.05%E -2.15%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.65%E -2.91%K -7.75%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 08:55
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -5.05%E -2.15%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -10.61%E -7.07%K -21.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 04:55
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -5.05%E -2.15%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -10.61%E -7.07%K -21.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-02 04:51
Coolbet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.86%E -2.51%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -4.05%E -2.52%K -6.64%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-02 09:20
Bet Right🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.07%E -3.07%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.46%E -2.13%K -5.57%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-02 08:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.07%E -3.07%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.05%E -2.52%K -6.64%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 08:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.07%E -3.07%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.65%E -2.91%K -7.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 08:40
Dabble (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.07%E -3.07%K -5.44%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.65%E -2.91%K -7.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-02 08:50
SportsBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -7.88%E -3.45%K -6.15%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.76%EV -4.65%E -2.91%K -7.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-02 09:31
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.09%EV -8.28%E -3.65%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -1.67%E -1.01%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-02 09:25
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -9.09%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.67%E -1.01%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 09:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -9.09%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.67%E -1.01%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 09:25
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -9.09%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -2.26%E -1.38%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 09:15
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -9.09%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -2.26%E -1.38%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 09:15
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -9.09%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -2.26%E -1.38%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 09:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -9.09%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -2.26%E -1.38%K -3.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-02 09:15
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.09%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.46%E -2.13%K -5.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 08:46
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.52%EV -9.09%E -4.04%K -7.27%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 60.48%EV -12.40%E -8.43%K -26.37%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-02 09:25
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.23%EV -9.90%E -4.44%K -8.05%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.77%EV -2.86%E -1.75%K -4.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 09:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -11.11%E -5.05%K -9.26%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -4.05%E -2.52%K -6.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 09:15
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -11.11%E -5.05%K -9.26%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -4.65%E -2.91%K -7.75%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-02 09:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.77%EV -13.13%E -6.11%K -11.42%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 59.23%EV -11.80%E -7.97%K -24.58%G +0.000%14.1%2026-05-02 09:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%0.4%2026-05-02 09:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%0.4%2026-05-02 09:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%0.4%2026-05-02 09:25