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Carlton Blues v Hawthorn Hawks

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 09:35 UTC

Final: Carlton Blues 39–103 Hawthorn Hawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carlton Blues (Local)

Prediction 38.69%2.58fair odd
EV +2.14%
Edge +0.810%
Kelly +1.30%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.23%38.93%38.70%44.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.402.402.6446.51%41.66%41.67%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hawthorn Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 61.31%1.63fair odd
EV +3.62%
Edge +2.14%
Kelly +5.24%
Growth +0.189%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.99%61.07%61.30%63.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.551.531.6970.42%64.50%65.36%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlton Blues (Local): 38.69%; Hawthorn Hawks (Visit): 61.31%. For Hawthorn Hawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.69, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.62%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -16.82%E -7.82%K -14.62%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV +3.62%E +2.14%K +5.24%G +0.189%5.7%2026-07-11 02:53
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -16.82%E -7.82%K -14.62%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV +2.39%E +1.43%K +3.57%G +0.085%6.4%2026-07-11 03:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -16.82%E -7.82%K -14.62%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV +2.39%E +1.43%K +3.57%G +0.085%6.4%2026-07-11 03:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -14.88%E -6.77%K -12.40%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -1.90%E -1.19%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-11 01:59
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.74%E -2.38%K -6.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 09:09
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.74%E -2.38%K -6.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 09:09
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.74%E -2.38%K -6.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 09:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.74%E -2.38%K -6.57%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 09:09
Unibet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -9.08%E -3.86%K -6.73%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -3.74%E -2.38%K -6.57%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-11 09:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -7.15%E -2.98%K -5.10%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -4.36%E -2.79%K -7.78%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-11 08:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -11.01%E -4.79%K -8.47%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -4.36%E -2.79%K -7.78%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-11 09:29
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.58%E -3.62%K -10.34%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-11 09:34
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -1.34%E -0.526%K -0.866%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -6.19%E -4.05%K -11.69%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-11 09:29
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.19%E -4.05%K -11.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 09:24
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.19%E -4.05%K -11.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 09:29
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.19%E -4.05%K -11.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 09:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.19%E -4.05%K -11.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 09:29
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.19%E -4.05%K -11.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 09:14
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -9.08%E -3.86%K -6.73%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -6.19%E -4.05%K -11.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-11 09:12
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -1.34%E -0.526%K -0.866%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.81%E -4.48%K -13.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-11 09:14
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -9.08%E -3.86%K -6.73%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -6.81%E -4.48%K -13.09%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-11 09:20
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -3.28%E -1.31%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -7.42%E -4.91%K -14.55%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-11 09:35
Pinnacle🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV +2.14%E +0.810%K +1.30%G +0.028%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -8.03%E -5.36%K -16.07%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-11 09:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV +0.592%E +0.228%K +0.370%G +0.002%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -8.03%E -5.36%K -16.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-11 09:24
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.84%EV -12.95%E -5.76%K -10.36%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 60.16%EV -8.65%E -5.80%K -17.65%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-11 09:24
NetBet (FR)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 37.97%EV -10.24%E -4.41%K -7.76%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 62.03%EV -12.94%E -9.11%K -30.81%G +0.000%13.5%2026-07-11 09:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%0.5%2026-07-11 09:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%0.6%2026-07-11 09:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%1.55I 64.52%NM 64.04%0.7%2026-07-11 09:35

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.92%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.78%70.00I 1.43%NM 1.31%9.3%2026-07-11 09:19
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.99%75.00I 1.33%NM 1.22%9.7%2026-07-11 09:34

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