The School of Odds
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Carlton Blues v Collingwood Magpies

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 09:35 UTC

Final: Carlton Blues 83–88 Collingwood Magpies

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Carlton Blues (Local)

Prediction 39.69%2.52fair odd
EV +1.21%
Edge +0.475%
Kelly +0.781%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%39.63%40.05%41.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.382.402.5546.08%42.05%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Collingwood Magpies (Visit)

Prediction 60.31%1.66fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -3.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.14%60.37%59.95%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.551.561.6267.57%64.31%64.10%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlton Blues (Local): 39.69%; Collingwood Magpies (Visit): 60.31%. For Carlton Blues (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.52. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.21%.

2 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV +1.21%E +0.475%K +0.781%G +0.009%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -7.73%E -5.05%K -14.58%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-16 09:30
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -0.773%E -0.309%K -0.516%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -7.12%E -4.63%K -13.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-16 09:30
Pinnacle🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.37%EV -1.17%E -0.470%K -0.785%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.63%EV -6.52%E -4.21%K -11.86%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-16 09:29
TAB🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.76%E -1.13%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.52%E -4.21%K -11.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 09:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.76%E -1.13%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.52%E -4.21%K -11.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 09:30
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -2.76%E -1.13%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -6.52%E -4.21%K -11.86%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 09:30
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.74%E -1.98%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.11%E -2.58%K -6.96%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-16 09:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.74%E -1.98%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.71%E -2.98%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 09:30
Dabble (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.74%E -1.98%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.71%E -2.98%K -8.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 09:29
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.74%E -1.98%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.92%E -3.79%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 09:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.74%E -1.98%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.92%E -3.79%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 09:30
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.74%E -1.98%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.92%E -3.79%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 09:30
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -4.74%E -1.98%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.92%E -3.79%K -10.57%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 09:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -4.74%E -1.98%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.52%E -4.21%K -11.86%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-16 09:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -4.74%E -1.98%K -3.39%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -9.54%E -6.36%K -19.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-16 09:30
SportsBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.59%EV -5.54%E -2.33%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.41%EV -5.92%E -3.79%K -10.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 09:30
Coolbet🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 40.15%EV -5.93%E -2.50%K -4.33%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.85%EV -4.11%E -2.58%K -6.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-16 09:28
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.73%E -2.86%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-16 09:29
Coral🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -6.73%E -2.86%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-16 09:30
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -6.73%E -2.86%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -7.73%E -5.05%K -14.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-16 09:26
Marathon Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -7.92%E -3.41%K -6.00%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -6.52%E -4.21%K -11.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 09:29
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.71%E -3.79%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-16 09:30
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -8.71%E -3.79%K -6.70%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -5.31%E -3.38%K -9.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-16 09:30
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -10.70%E -4.75%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -2.30%E -1.42%K -3.71%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-16 09:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -12.68%E -5.76%K -10.57%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 59.30%EV -8.93%E -5.92%K -17.52%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-16 09:29
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.55%EV -13.87%E -6.39%K -11.86%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 59.45%EV -10.74%E -7.26%K -22.38%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-16 09:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%0.6%2026-04-16 09:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%0.6%2026-04-16 09:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%0.6%2026-04-16 09:30

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (2)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.34%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.73%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%7.8%2026-04-16 09:30
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.34%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.73%100.00I 1.00%NM 0.93%7.8%2026-04-16 09:30