Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn Hawks

2026-08-07 09:40 UTC — AFL

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (0 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brisbane Lions (Local)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -64.94%
Kelly -185.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.69%0.00%0.00%62.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.531.531.5465.79%65.36%65.36%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hawthorn Hawks (Visit)

Prediction 0.00%fair odd
EV -100.00%
Edge -40.00%
Kelly -66.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.81%0.00%0.00%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.492.502.5040.32%40.13%40.00%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-07-30 04:00
Bet Right1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-07-30 04:00
Paddy Power1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%5.4%2026-07-30 04:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%5.8%2026-07-30 04:19
Neds1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%5.8%2026-07-30 04:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.34I 74.63%NM 60.36%2.04I 49.02%NM 39.64%23.6%2026-07-30 05:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.34I 74.63%NM 60.36%2.04I 49.02%NM 39.64%23.6%2026-07-30 05:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.34I 74.63%NM 60.36%2.04I 49.02%NM 39.64%23.6%2026-07-30 05:30