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Brisbane Lions v Geelong Cats
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Brisbane Lions (Local)
Prediction 61.76%1.62fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.740%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.00%61.85%61.55%66.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.511.531.6071.43%66.02%65.36%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Geelong Cats (Visit)
Prediction 38.24%2.62fair odd
EV +8.98%
Edge +3.15%
Kelly +4.86%
Growth +0.436%
assuming max odds 2.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.57%38.15%38.45%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.482.452.8542.55%40.25%40.82%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Lions (Local): 61.76%; Geelong Cats (Visit): 38.24%. For Geelong Cats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.62. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.98%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -11.07%E -7.68%K -25.15%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV +8.98%E +3.15%K +4.86%G +0.436% | 4.5% | 2026-05-12 02:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -12.30%E -8.66%K -29.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV +5.16%E +1.88%K +2.95%G +0.152% | 6.8% | 2026-05-14 01:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -12.30%E -8.66%K -29.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV +5.16%E +1.88%K +2.95%G +0.152% | 6.8% | 2026-05-14 03:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -7.36%E -4.91%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -0.576%E -0.222%K -0.360%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 09:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.30%EV -7.98%E -5.35%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.70%EV -1.72%E -0.671%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-14 09:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.12%E -4.03%K -11.78%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -2.49%E -0.976%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-14 09:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -10.45%E -7.21%K -23.22%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -2.49%E -0.976%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-14 08:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -10.45%E -7.21%K -23.22%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -2.49%E -0.976%K -1.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-14 08:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -5.51%E -3.60%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -4.40%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-14 09:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.29%EV -3.65%E -2.34%K -6.53%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.71%EV -5.55%E -2.25%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-14 09:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.27%E -2.76%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-14 09:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.27%E -2.76%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-14 09:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.27%E -2.76%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-14 09:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.27%E -2.76%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-14 09:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.27%E -2.76%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-14 09:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.51%E -3.60%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-14 09:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 63.47%EV -12.92%E -9.16%K -31.51%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.53%EV -6.31%E -2.58%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-14 09:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -1.18%E -0.740%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -8.22%E -3.43%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-14 09:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -2.42%E -1.53%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -8.22%E -3.43%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-14 09:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -2.42%E -1.53%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -8.22%E -3.43%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-14 09:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -2.42%E -1.53%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -8.22%E -3.43%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-14 09:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -3.04%E -1.93%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -8.22%E -3.43%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-14 09:25 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.27%E -2.76%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -8.22%E -3.43%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-14 09:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.36%E -4.91%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.22%E -3.43%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-14 09:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -7.36%E -4.91%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.22%E -3.43%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-14 08:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.51%E -3.60%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.99%E -3.78%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-14 09:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -4.27%E -2.76%K -7.77%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -10.14%E -4.31%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-14 09:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 62.67%EV -13.54%E -9.67%K -33.84%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.33%EV -10.14%E -4.31%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-14 09:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.28% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.72% | 0.1% | 2026-05-14 09:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.28% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.72% | 0.1% | 2026-05-14 09:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 0.4% | 2026-05-14 09:20 |