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Brisbane Lions v Fremantle Dockers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Brisbane Lions (Local)
Prediction 61.12%1.64fair odd
EV +4.51%
Edge +2.64%
Kelly +6.35%
Growth +0.286%
assuming max odds 1.71
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.12%60.38%60.97%62.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.561.561.7168.97%64.13%64.31%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fremantle Dockers (Visit)
Prediction 38.88%2.57fair odd
EV -0.848%
Edge -0.332%
Kelly -0.547%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.35%39.62%39.03%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.372.402.5547.62%42.18%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Lions (Local): 61.12%; Fremantle Dockers (Visit): 38.88%. For Brisbane Lions (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.64. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.51%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV +4.51%E +2.64%K +6.35%G +0.286% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -18.35%E -8.74%K -16.68%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-28 20:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV +0.843%E +0.511%K +1.30%G +0.011% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -18.35%E -8.74%K -16.68%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-29 04:29 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.21%E -1.38%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.62%E -3.67%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-30 04:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.44%E -2.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.68%E -2.78%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-30 05:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -3.44%E -2.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -14.46%E -6.57%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-30 04:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.20%EV -3.44%E -2.17%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -14.46%E -6.57%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-30 04:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.05%E -2.58%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -5.90%E -2.44%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-30 05:58 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.05%E -2.58%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.68%E -2.78%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 03:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.05%E -2.58%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.68%E -2.78%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 03:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.05%E -2.58%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.68%E -2.78%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 05:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.05%E -2.58%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -6.68%E -2.78%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 05:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.05%E -2.58%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.62%E -3.67%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-30 03:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.05%E -2.58%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -8.62%E -3.67%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-30 03:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.29%EV -4.66%E -2.99%K -8.32%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.71%EV -3.96%E -1.60%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-30 05:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.74%E -1.93%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 06:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.74%E -1.93%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 06:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.74%E -1.93%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 06:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -4.74%E -1.93%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-30 06:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -8.62%E -3.67%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-30 06:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.11%EV -5.27%E -3.40%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -16.40%E -7.63%K -14.26%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-30 06:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.79%E -1.12%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 06:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.79%E -1.12%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 06:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -2.79%E -1.12%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-30 06:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -4.74%E -1.93%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-30 06:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -6.49%E -4.24%K -12.25%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -8.62%E -3.67%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-30 05:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -7.10%E -4.67%K -13.66%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -0.848%E -0.332%K -0.547%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-30 06:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.37%EV -8.94%E -6.00%K -18.24%G +0.000% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 37.63%EV -3.96%E -1.60%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-30 06:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 60.49%EV -11.38%E -7.85%K -25.29%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 39.51%EV -13.68%E -6.16%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-05-30 05:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60% | 0.5% | 2026-05-30 06:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 0.6% | 2026-05-30 06:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 0.6% | 2026-05-30 06:10 |