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Brisbane Lions v Collingwood Magpies
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Brisbane Lions (Local)
Prediction 74.36%1.34fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -11.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.11%74.47%73.74%77.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.261.251.3084.03%79.59%80.00%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Collingwood Magpies (Visit)
Prediction 25.64%3.90fair odd
EV +8.98%
Edge +2.11%
Kelly +2.76%
Growth +0.248%
assuming max odds 4.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.39%25.53%26.26%28.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.753.884.2531.25%26.70%25.81%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Lions (Local): 74.36%; Collingwood Magpies (Visit): 25.64%. For Collingwood Magpies (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.90. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.98%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -7.80%E -6.29%K -32.49%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV +8.98%E +2.11%K +2.76%G +0.248% | 4.2% | 2026-04-02 08:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.61%EV -9.28%E -7.61%K -42.20%G +0.000% | 4.23I 23.64%NM 22.39%EV +8.47%E +2.00%K +2.62%G +0.222% | 5.6% | 2026-04-02 08:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -7.05%E -5.64%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +5.14%E +1.25%K +1.66%G +0.085% | 4.4% | 2026-04-02 08:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -7.05%E -5.64%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +5.14%E +1.25%K +1.66%G +0.085% | 4.4% | 2026-04-02 08:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -7.05%E -5.64%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +5.14%E +1.25%K +1.66%G +0.085% | 4.4% | 2026-04-02 08:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -7.80%E -6.29%K -32.49%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV +5.14%E +1.25%K +1.66%G +0.085% | 5.0% | 2026-04-02 08:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -7.05%E -5.64%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +2.57%E +0.643%K +0.857%G +0.022% | 5.0% | 2026-04-02 08:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -7.05%E -5.64%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +2.57%E +0.643%K +0.857%G +0.022% | 5.0% | 2026-04-02 08:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -7.80%E -6.29%K -32.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV +2.57%E +0.643%K +0.857%G +0.022% | 5.6% | 2026-04-02 08:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -7.80%E -6.29%K -32.49%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV +2.57%E +0.643%K +0.857%G +0.022% | 5.6% | 2026-04-02 08:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -6.31%E -5.01%K -24.27%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +0.007%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-02 08:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -6.31%E -5.01%K -24.27%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +0.007%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-02 08:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -6.31%E -5.01%K -24.27%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +0.007%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-02 08:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -6.31%E -5.01%K -24.27%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV +0.007%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-02 08:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -7.05%E -5.64%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -1.27%E -0.331%K -0.447%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-02 08:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -6.31%E -5.01%K -24.27%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -3.84%E -1.02%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-02 08:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.08%E -3.16%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.69%E -2.13%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-02 08:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -6.31%E -5.01%K -24.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -8.97%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-02 08:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.08%E -3.16%K -14.07%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-02 08:10 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.05%E -5.64%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-02 08:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.05%E -5.64%K -28.21%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -10.25%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-02 08:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.26%EV -5.57%E -4.38%K -20.62%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.74%EV -10.76%E -3.09%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-02 08:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 73.79%EV -11.52%E -9.68%K -60.61%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.21%EV -14.10%E -4.21%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-04-02 08:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -4.82%E -3.77%K -17.22%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -15.38%E -4.66%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-02 08:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.01%EV -9.28%E -7.61%K -42.20%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.99%EV -15.38%E -4.66%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-04-02 08:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -3.34%E -2.57%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -16.66%E -5.13%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-02 07:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -3.34%E -2.57%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -16.66%E -5.13%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-02 07:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -3.34%E -2.57%K -11.12%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -17.94%E -5.61%K -8.16%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-02 05:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.30I 76.92%NM 76.79% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.21% | 0.2% | 2026-04-02 08:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 0.8% | 2026-04-02 08:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08% | 0.8% | 2026-04-02 08:25 |