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Brisbane Lions v Carlton Blues
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Brisbane Lions (Local)
Prediction 87.03%1.15fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -3.88%
Kelly -42.64%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.80%86.99%87.07%88.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.081.081.1099.01%92.66%92.59%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Carlton Blues (Visit)
Prediction 12.97%7.71fair odd
EV +10.22%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.36%
Growth +0.139%
assuming max odds 8.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.02%13.01%12.93%17.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.207.337.508.5019.23%13.65%13.33%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Brisbane Lions (Local): 87.03%; Carlton Blues (Visit): 12.97%. For Carlton Blues (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.71. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.22%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -6.88%E -6.43%K -98.22%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV +10.22%E +1.20%K +1.36%G +0.139% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 09:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.98%EV -9.49%E -9.12%K -237.16%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.02%EV +8.93%E +1.06%K +1.21%G +0.108% | 8.1% | 2026-05-08 08:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.00%E -5.56%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +3.74%E +0.468%K +0.534%G +0.020% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 20:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.00%E -5.56%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +3.74%E +0.468%K +0.534%G +0.020% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 20:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.00%E -5.56%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +3.74%E +0.468%K +0.534%G +0.020% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 09:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.00%E -5.56%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +3.74%E +0.468%K +0.534%G +0.020% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 20:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.00%E -5.56%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +3.74%E +0.468%K +0.534%G +0.020% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 20:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.00%E -5.56%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +3.74%E +0.468%K +0.534%G +0.020% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 07:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.00%E -5.56%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +3.74%E +0.468%K +0.534%G +0.020% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 08:25 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -6.00%E -5.56%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +3.74%E +0.468%K +0.534%G +0.020% | 5.1% | 2026-05-08 07:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.88%E -6.43%K -98.22%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +3.74%E +0.468%K +0.534%G +0.020% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 09:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.13%E -4.71%K -57.05%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -2.74%E -0.366%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 03:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -5.13%E -4.71%K -57.05%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -2.74%E -0.366%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 03:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.00%E -5.56%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -2.74%E -0.366%K -0.422%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-06 21:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.59%EV -4.26%E -3.88%K -42.64%G +0.000% | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.41%EV -7.93%E -1.12%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-08 09:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.26%E -3.88%K -42.64%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -9.23%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-08 04:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.13%E -4.71%K -57.05%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -9.23%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 09:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.13%E -4.71%K -57.05%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -9.23%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -6.00%E -5.56%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -9.23%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 20:13 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -6.00%E -5.56%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -9.23%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-06 02:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -6.00%E -5.56%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -9.23%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-06 05:38 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -6.88%E -6.43%K -98.22%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -9.23%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-04 07:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 87.39%EV -12.10%E -11.98%K -1209.72%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -9.23%E -1.32%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-05-08 07:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -6.00%E -5.56%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -15.71%E -2.42%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 13:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.06%EV -4.26%E -3.88%K -42.64%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -24.79%E -4.27%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-07 23:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.06%EV -4.26%E -3.88%K -42.64%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -24.79%E -4.27%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-07 23:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 82.80%EV -6.00%E -5.56%K -75.06%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.20%EV -32.57%E -6.26%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-08 09:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.44% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 10.56% | 0.7% | 2026-05-08 09:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.23% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.77% | 1.0% | 2026-05-08 09:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.23% | 9.20I 10.87%NM 10.77% | 1.0% | 2026-05-08 09:25 |