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Adelaide Crows v Melbourne Demons
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Adelaide Crows (Local)
Prediction 70.44%1.42fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -3.09%
Kelly -11.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.80%70.48%70.32%72.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.331.331.3680.00%75.15%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Melbourne Demons (Visit)
Prediction 29.56%3.38fair odd
EV +1.98%
Edge +0.574%
Kelly +0.809%
Growth +0.016%
assuming max odds 3.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.19%29.52%29.68%32.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.203.203.4535.71%31.24%31.25%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adelaide Crows (Local): 70.44%; Melbourne Demons (Visit): 29.56%. For Melbourne Demons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.38. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.98%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -7.72%E -5.90%K -24.91%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV +1.98%E +0.574%K +0.809%G +0.016% | 5.3% | 2026-06-20 03:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -10.54%E -8.30%K -39.04%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV +0.503%E +0.148%K +0.210%G +0.001% | 8.2% | 2026-06-19 14:30 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -5.61%E -4.19%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV -0.975%E -0.291%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-06-18 15:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -0.975%E -0.291%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-20 02:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -0.975%E -0.291%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-20 02:09 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -0.975%E -0.291%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-20 03:09 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -0.975%E -0.291%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-20 02:09 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -0.975%E -0.291%K -0.415%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-06-20 02:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.34%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 3.31I 30.21%NM 28.66%EV -2.16%E -0.652%K -0.934%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-20 03:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.45%E -0.743%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-20 03:10 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.91%E -3.63%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -3.93%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-20 02:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -5.61%E -4.19%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -3.93%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-20 02:29 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -5.61%E -4.19%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -3.93%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-20 03:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.91%E -3.63%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-20 02:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.91%E -3.63%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-20 02:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-20 02:09 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-17 22:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-17 22:19 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -8.43%E -6.48%K -28.09%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-20 03:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.35%EV -5.61%E -4.19%K -16.50%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.65%EV -6.00%E -1.89%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-20 03:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.20%E -3.09%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.89%E -2.19%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-20 02:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.40%EV -7.02%E -5.32%K -21.93%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 29.60%EV -7.18%E -2.29%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-06-20 01:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -4.91%E -3.63%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -8.36%E -2.70%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-20 03:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.20%E -3.09%K -11.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -11.32%E -3.77%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-18 08:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.24%EV -11.95%E -9.56%K -47.80%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.76%EV -12.80%E -4.34%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-06-20 02:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -4.91%E -3.63%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -14.28%E -4.92%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-20 00:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -4.91%E -3.63%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -14.28%E -4.92%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-06-20 00:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 67.80%EV -6.31%E -4.75%K -19.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -17.23%E -6.15%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-20 03:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21% | 0.4% | 2026-06-20 03:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21% | 0.4% | 2026-06-20 03:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.79% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.21% | 0.4% | 2026-06-20 03:10 |