The School of Odds
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Louisville Kings v DC Defenders

Kickoff: 2026-06-13 19:15 UTC

Final: Louisville Kings 27–20 DC Defenders

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Louisville Kings (Local)

Prediction 52.84%1.89fair odd
EV -1.19%
Edge -0.637%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.05%52.89%52.73%55.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.801.811.8757.80%55.59%55.10%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

DC Defenders (Visit)

Prediction 47.16%2.12fair odd
EV +1.40%
Edge +0.649%
Kelly +1.21%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.73%47.11%47.27%48.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.022.002.1551.81%49.60%50.00%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Louisville Kings (Local): 52.84%; DC Defenders (Visit): 47.16%. For DC Defenders (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.12. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -8.06%E -4.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV +1.40%E +0.649%K +1.21%G +0.017%4.0%2026-06-13 19:10
BetAnything🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -8.06%E -4.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV +1.40%E +0.649%K +1.21%G +0.017%4.0%2026-06-13 19:10
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.89%E -2.72%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.32%E -1.62%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-13 19:10
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.89%E -2.72%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.32%E -1.62%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-13 19:01
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.89%E -2.72%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.32%E -1.62%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-13 19:10
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -8.06%E -4.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -3.32%E -1.62%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-13 19:07
Caesars🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.73%EV -3.83%E -2.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.27%EV -4.26%E -2.10%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-13 19:09
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -4.36%E -2.41%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -5.21%E -2.59%K -5.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-13 18:59
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.30%E -1.81%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-13 19:08
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.30%E -1.81%K -3.98%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.6%2026-06-13 19:10
BetRivers🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.83%E -2.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-13 18:59
Unibet (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.83%E -2.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-13 18:59
Unibet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.83%E -2.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-13 18:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.83%E -2.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-13 18:59
betPARX🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.83%E -2.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-13 18:58
Bally Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36%EV -3.83%E -2.11%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.64%EV -5.68%E -2.84%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-13 18:59
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -1.19%E -0.637%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -8.04%E -4.12%K -8.46%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-13 19:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -4.89%E -2.72%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -8.04%E -4.12%K -8.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-06-13 19:10
MyBookie.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.04%E -4.12%K -8.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-13 19:10
ReBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.73%EV -8.59%E -4.96%K -11.77%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.27%EV -8.98%E -4.65%K -9.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-06-13 18:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.