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Indianapolis Colts v Detroit Lions
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Indianapolis Colts (Local)
Prediction 55.75%1.79fair odd
EV +0.359%
Edge +0.199%
Kelly +0.448%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%55.78%55.74%57.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.711.711.8062.50%58.47%58.48%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Detroit Lions (Visit)
Prediction 44.25%2.26fair odd
EV -1.33%
Edge -0.598%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.11%44.22%44.26%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.162.152.2348.78%46.25%46.51%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Indianapolis Colts (Local): 55.75%; Detroit Lions (Visit): 44.25%. For Indianapolis Colts (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.79. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.359%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV +0.359%E +0.199%K +0.448%G +0.002% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -9.30%E -4.54%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-29 16:43 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -2.43%E -1.39%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -7.09%E -3.37%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-29 16:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -2.43%E -1.39%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -7.53%E -3.60%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-29 16:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.99%E -1.72%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.87%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-29 16:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.99%E -1.72%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.87%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-29 16:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.99%E -1.72%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.87%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-29 16:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.99%E -1.72%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.87%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-29 16:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.99%E -1.72%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.87%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-29 16:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.99%E -1.72%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.87%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-29 16:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -4.10%E -2.38%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -3.99%E -1.84%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-29 16:44 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.10%E -2.38%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.87%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-29 16:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.10%E -2.38%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.87%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-29 16:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.10%E -2.38%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.87%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-29 16:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.10%E -2.38%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.20%E -2.92%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-29 16:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.66%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.66%E -1.21%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-29 16:29 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.66%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.87%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-29 16:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.66%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.87%E -2.27%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-29 16:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.66%E -2.72%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.32%E -2.48%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-29 16:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -5.22%E -3.07%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -1.33%E -0.598%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-29 16:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -5.22%E -3.07%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -1.33%E -0.598%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-29 16:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -5.22%E -3.07%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -1.33%E -0.598%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-29 16:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -5.22%E -3.07%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -1.33%E -0.598%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-29 16:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -5.22%E -3.07%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -1.33%E -0.598%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-29 16:40 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -5.22%E -3.07%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -3.99%E -1.84%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-29 16:34 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.03%EV -5.22%E -3.07%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.97%EV -7.97%E -3.83%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-29 16:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -5.77%E -3.42%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -1.78%E -0.800%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-29 16:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.59%EV -6.33%E -3.77%K -9.31%G +0.000% | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.41%EV -3.10%E -1.42%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-29 16:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.89%E -4.13%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.09%E -3.37%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-29 16:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -8.00%E -4.85%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.66%E -1.21%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-29 16:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -8.00%E -4.85%K -12.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -2.66%E -1.21%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-29 16:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -10.79%E -6.75%K -17.99%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -2.66%E -1.21%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-29 15:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64% | 0.5% | 2026-08-29 16:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78% | 0.6% | 2026-08-29 16:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14% | 0.7% | 2026-08-29 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14% | 0.7% | 2026-08-29 16:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.25% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.75% | 0.7% | 2026-08-29 16:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55% | 2.6% | 2026-08-29 16:55 |