Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Detroit Lions v Washington Commanders

2026-08-22 16:00 UTC — NFL Preseason

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

56%

44%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Detroit Lions (Local)

Prediction 55.90%1.79fair odd

EV -1.62%

Edge -0.921%

Kelly -2.13%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

53.80%55.90%55.90%56.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.651.711.711.7660.61%58.58%58.48%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Washington Commanders (Visit)

Prediction 44.10%2.27fair odd

EV -3.86%

Edge -1.77%

Kelly -3.27%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.72%44.10%44.10%46.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.982.102.102.1850.51%47.62%47.62%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Detroit Lions (Local): 55.90%; Washington Commanders (Visit): 44.10%. For Detroit Lions (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.79. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.76, with an expected value of -1.62%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -1.62%E -0.921%K -2.13%G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -8.27%E -3.97%K -7.65%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-08-17 07:58
ReBet🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.21%EV -2.74%E -1.57%K -3.70%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 45.79%EV -9.15%E -4.44%K -8.63%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-17 07:54
FanDuel🎯	1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -3.86%E -2.24%K -5.36%G +0.000%	2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -3.86%E -1.77%K -3.27%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-08-17 07:53
SportsBet🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.42%E -2.58%K -6.22%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.18%E -2.41%K -4.50%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-08-17 07:54
LeoVegas🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -4.97%E -2.93%K -7.11%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 46.20%EV -12.68%E -6.40%K -12.94%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-08-17 07:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.65%E -3.98%K -9.93%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.18%E -2.41%K -4.50%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-08-17 07:54
Paddy Power🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.77%E -4.71%K -11.95%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -7.38%E -3.52%K -6.71%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-08-17 07:53

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%	2.27I 44.05%NM 42.09%	4.7%	2026-08-17 08:10

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