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Atlanta Falcons v Denver Broncos
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atlanta Falcons (Local)
Prediction 39.85%2.51fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -0.967%
Kelly -1.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.05%39.87%39.82%41.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.392.402.4544.44%41.91%41.67%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Denver Broncos (Visit)
Prediction 60.15%1.66fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -3.10%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.52%60.13%60.18%60.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.591.591.6364.52%63.05%62.89%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atlanta Falcons (Local): 39.85%; Denver Broncos (Visit): 60.15%. For Denver Broncos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.63, with an expected value of -1.95%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV -2.37%E -0.967%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -3.16%E -1.96%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-14 22:34 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.37%E -0.967%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.36%E -2.74%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-14 23:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.37%E -0.967%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.36%E -2.74%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-14 22:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -2.37%E -0.967%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -4.36%E -2.74%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-14 22:23 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -2.37%E -0.967%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -5.56%E -3.54%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-14 22:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.55%EV -3.17%E -1.30%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.45%EV -4.36%E -2.74%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-14 22:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.95%EV -3.56%E -1.47%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.05%EV -3.16%E -1.96%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-14 22:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.75%EV -3.96%E -1.64%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.25%EV -4.36%E -2.74%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-14 23:03 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -4.36%E -1.82%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-14 23:04 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -4.36%E -1.82%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -4.36%E -2.74%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-14 22:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -4.36%E -1.82%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.96%E -3.14%K -8.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-14 22:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.36%E -1.82%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.56%E -3.54%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 22:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.36%E -1.82%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.56%E -3.54%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 22:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.36%E -1.82%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.56%E -3.54%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 22:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.36%E -1.82%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.56%E -3.54%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 22:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.36%E -1.82%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.56%E -3.54%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 22:19 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -4.36%E -1.82%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.56%E -3.54%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-14 22:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.55%EV -4.76%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.45%EV -1.95%E -1.20%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-14 23:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.55%EV -4.76%E -1.99%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.45%EV -1.95%E -1.20%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-14 23:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -5.16%E -2.17%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -3.16%E -1.96%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-14 22:04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -5.16%E -2.17%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -5.56%E -3.54%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-14 22:04 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.25%EV -5.96%E -2.52%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.75%EV -4.36%E -2.74%K -7.39%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-14 23:04 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.16%E -1.96%K -5.18%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-14 23:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 22:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -3.76%E -2.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-14 22:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.17%E -3.95%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 22:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.17%E -3.95%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 22:09 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.17%E -3.95%K -11.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-14 22:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.77%E -4.37%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-14 22:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -6.35%E -2.70%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.77%E -4.37%K -12.30%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-14 22:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -8.35%E -3.63%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -1.95%E -1.20%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-14 22:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -10.34%E -4.59%K -8.27%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -5.56%E -3.54%K -9.76%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-14 22:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 2.47I 40.49%NM 40.34% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.66% | 0.4% | 2026-08-14 23:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20% | 3.8% | 2026-08-14 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20% | 3.8% | 2026-08-14 23:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20% | 3.8% | 2026-08-14 23:04 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00% | 4.2% | 2026-08-14 23:04 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 40.11% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.89% | 11.3% | 2026-08-14 23:04 |