The School of Odds

New York Jets v Cleveland Browns

2026-10-11 17:00 UTC — NFL

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

New York Jets (Local)

Prediction 55.56%1.80fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -0.942%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.26%55.56%55.56%56.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.671.721.721.7760%58%58%56%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Cleveland Browns (Visit)

Prediction 44.44%2.25fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.15%44.44%44.44%45.74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.102.152.152.2048%47%47%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -1.67%E -0.942%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.67%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-21 09:59
Caesars1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.22%E -4.32%K -10.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.22%E -1.01%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-01 20:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.