Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Orleans Saints v Atlanta Falcons

2026-10-06 00:15 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

56%

44%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Orleans Saints (Local)

Prediction 55.76%1.79fair odd

EV -4.64%

Edge -2.72%

Kelly -6.54%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.12%55.76%55.76%56.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.701.701.701.7158.82%58.71%58.82%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlanta Falcons (Visit)

Prediction 44.24%2.26fair odd

EV -2.68%

Edge -1.22%

Kelly -2.23%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.59%44.24%44.24%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.152.152.2047.62%46.51%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New Orleans Saints (Local): 55.76%; Atlanta Falcons (Visit): 44.24%. For Atlanta Falcons (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.20, with an expected value of -2.68%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.64%E -2.72%K -6.54%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.10%E -3.38%K -6.46%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-15 22:38
DraftKings🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.20%E -3.06%K -7.43%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.68%E -1.22%K -2.23%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-07 22:35
Betr (AU)🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.20%E -3.06%K -7.43%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.89%E -2.28%K -4.25%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-07 22:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.