New Orleans Saints v Atlanta Falcons

2026-10-06 00:15 UTC — NFL

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

55%

45%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

New Orleans Saints (Local)

Prediction 55.14%1.81fair odd

EV -4.06%

Edge -2.33%

Kelly -5.49%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.12%55.14%55.14%55.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.711.731.731.7458%58%58%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Atlanta Falcons (Visit)

Prediction 44.86%2.23fair odd

EV -3.99%

Edge -1.87%

Kelly -3.50%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.85%44.86%44.86%44.88%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.102.122.122.1448%47%47%47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -4.06%E -2.33%K -5.49%G +0.000%	2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -3.99%E -1.87%K -3.50%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-06 11:15
Caesars	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.72%E -3.34%K -8.05%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -5.79%E -2.76%K -5.26%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-15 22:38

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.