Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

New England Patriots v Pittsburgh Steelers

2026-09-20 17:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New England Patriots (Local)

Prediction 68.47%1.46fair odd

EV -1.41%

Edge -0.978%

Kelly -3.20%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.43%68.47%68.47%70.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.361.401.391.4473.53%71.60%71.94%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Steelers (Visit)

Prediction 31.53%3.17fair odd

EV +2.48%

Edge +0.765%

Kelly +1.10%

Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.50%31.53%31.53%33.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.853.033.003.2535.09%32.97%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New England Patriots (Local): 68.47%; Pittsburgh Steelers (Visit): 31.53%. For Pittsburgh Steelers (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.17. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.25, producing a positive expected value of +2.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.89%E -5.06%K -19.13%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +2.48%E +0.765%K +1.10%G +0.027%	4.3%	2026-05-15 02:10
Betr (AU)🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -4.83%E -3.48%K -12.39%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -5.40%E -1.80%K -2.70%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-14 16:09
DraftKings🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -1.41%E -0.978%K -3.20%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -10.13%E -3.55%K -5.48%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-08-14 16:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket◎	1.09I 91.74%NM 50.00%	1.09I 91.74%NM 50.00%	83.5%	2026-08-14 05:10

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