Language:English
New England Patriots v Pittsburgh Steelers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
New England Patriots (Local)
Prediction 66.41%1.51fair odd
EV -0.382%
Edge -0.255%
Kelly -0.764%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.96%66.27%66.43%68.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.431.441.5077.52%69.86%69.69%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pittsburgh Steelers (Visit)
Prediction 33.59%2.98fair odd
EV +2.44%
Edge +0.801%
Kelly +1.19%
Growth +0.029%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.82%33.73%33.57%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.842.853.0539.22%35.20%35.09%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New England Patriots (Local): 66.41%; Pittsburgh Steelers (Visit): 33.59%. For Pittsburgh Steelers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.98. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.44%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07%EV +2.44%E +0.801%K +1.19%G +0.029% | 2.2% | 2026-09-20 16:39 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.02%E -5.02%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +0.764%E +0.255%K +0.382%G +0.003% | 4.8% | 2026-09-20 15:28 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.02%E -5.02%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +0.764%E +0.255%K +0.382%G +0.003% | 4.8% | 2026-09-20 15:28 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28%EV -5.03%E -3.52%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%EV -1.25%E -0.426%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-14 10:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-20 10:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-20 10:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-20 10:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-20 10:04 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.03%E -3.52%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-20 16:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.03%E -3.52%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-20 16:44 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.03%E -3.52%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-20 16:03 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -5.03%E -3.52%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-20 16:13 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.70%E -4.01%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.70%E -4.01%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-20 16:49 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.02%E -5.02%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-14 07:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.02%E -5.02%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-20 16:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.02%E -5.02%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-14 07:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.02%E -5.02%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-14 07:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.02%E -5.02%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-14 07:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -8.35%E -6.05%K -21.98%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -2.59%E -0.895%K -1.37%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -3.27%E -1.13%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-20 16:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -3.27%E -1.13%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-20 16:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.90%EV -5.70%E -4.01%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 33.10%EV -3.60%E -1.26%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-20 16:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -3.70%E -2.55%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -3.94%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-20 16:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -3.70%E -2.55%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -3.94%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-20 16:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.82%EV -5.70%E -4.01%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.18%EV -3.94%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-20 16:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -3.70%E -2.55%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -4.27%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-20 16:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -3.70%E -2.55%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -4.27%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-20 16:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.27%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.27%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-20 16:04 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.27%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-20 16:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -4.27%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-20 16:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.03%E -3.52%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.27%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-20 10:03 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.03%E -3.52%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.27%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-20 10:04 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.03%E -3.52%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.27%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-20 10:04 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.03%E -3.52%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.27%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-20 10:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.03%E -3.52%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -4.27%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-20 10:04 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.70%E -4.01%K -13.56%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -4.27%E -1.50%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.74%EV -1.71%E -1.16%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.26%EV -4.61%E -1.62%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-20 16:55 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.81%EV -3.04%E -2.08%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.19%EV -5.62%E -2.00%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-20 16:18 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.04%E -2.08%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -5.95%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-20 16:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.95%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-20 16:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.95%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-20 14:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.95%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.37%E -3.03%K -9.92%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.95%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-20 16:29 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.03%E -3.52%K -11.70%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.95%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-20 16:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -1.71%E -1.16%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -7.63%E -2.78%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-20 16:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -1.71%E -1.16%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -7.63%E -2.78%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -3.70%E -2.55%K -8.23%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -7.63%E -2.78%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.02%E -5.02%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.63%E -2.78%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-20 16:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.02%E -5.02%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.63%E -2.78%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-20 16:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -1.71%E -1.16%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -9.31%E -3.45%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -2.37%E -1.62%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -10.99%E -4.15%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -7.02%E -5.02%K -17.56%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -10.99%E -4.15%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-20 16:57 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -0.382%E -0.255%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -14.35%E -5.63%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-20 16:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 66.41%EV -14.33%E -11.11%K -49.41%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 33.59%EV -14.35%E -5.63%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 16.7% | 2026-09-20 10:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48% | 0.2% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.52% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.48% | 0.2% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 0.4% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.82% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.18% | 0.4% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.67% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33% | 0.7% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.0% | 2026-09-20 11:44 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.0% | 2026-09-20 16:19 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.52% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 33.48% | 1.6% | 2026-09-20 16:59 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43% | 3.7% | 2026-09-20 16:49 |