Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

New England Patriots v Pittsburgh Steelers

2026-09-20 17:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New England Patriots (Local)

Prediction 67.71%1.48fair odd

EV -1.14%

Edge -0.784%

Kelly -2.49%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

65.73%67.71%67.71%69.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.371.411.401.4672.99%70.92%71.43%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Steelers (Visit)

Prediction 32.29%3.10fair odd

EV +1.72%

Edge +0.545%

Kelly +0.798%

Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

30.31%32.29%32.29%34.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.802.972.953.1535.71%33.71%33.90%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New England Patriots (Local): 67.71%; Pittsburgh Steelers (Visit): 32.29%. For Pittsburgh Steelers (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.15, producing a positive expected value of +1.72%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -7.24%E -5.28%K -19.56%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV +1.72%E +0.545%K +0.798%G +0.014%	4.7%	2026-08-31 21:51
Betr (AU)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.21%E -3.72%K -13.02%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.74%E -1.61%K -2.43%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-31 02:45
DraftKings🎯	1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -1.14%E -0.784%K -2.49%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -9.59%E -3.42%K -5.33%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-31 02:44

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Kalshi◎	1.47I 68.03%NM 66.67%	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.33%	2.0%	2026-09-03 20:15
Polymarket◎	1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%	2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%	3.9%	2026-09-03 06:10