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Miami Dolphins v New England Patriots

2026-11-01 21:25 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Miami Dolphins (Local)

Prediction 26.81%3.73fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -0.972%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.68%26.81%26.81%26.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.553.553.6028.57%28.17%28.17%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New England Patriots (Visit)

Prediction 73.19%1.37fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -3.14%
Kelly -13.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.07%73.19%73.19%73.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.301.301.3177.52%76.92%76.92%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Miami Dolphins (Local): 26.81%; New England Patriots (Visit): 73.19%. For Miami Dolphins (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.60, with an expected value of -3.50%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -3.50%E -0.972%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.12%E -3.14%K -13.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-14 16:39
Caesars🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.58%E -4.33%K -19.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-22 22:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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