Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Las Vegas Raiders v Kansas City Chiefs

2026-10-04 20:25 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

32%

68%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Las Vegas Raiders (Local)

Prediction 32.45%3.08fair odd

EV -4.28%

Edge -1.45%

Kelly -2.19%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.18%32.45%32.45%32.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.902.932.952.9534.48%34.09%33.90%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas City Chiefs (Visit)

Prediction 67.55%1.48fair odd

EV -4.08%

Edge -2.87%

Kelly -9.70%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.51%67.55%67.55%67.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.391.401.401.4271.94%71.26%71.43%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Las Vegas Raiders (Local): 32.45%; Kansas City Chiefs (Visit): 67.55%. For Kansas City Chiefs (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.48. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.42, with an expected value of -4.08%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.28%E -1.45%K -2.19%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.08%E -2.87%K -9.70%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-12 19:29
Betr (AU)🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.28%E -1.45%K -2.19%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.43%E -3.88%K -13.57%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-08-06 22:35
Caesars🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -5.90%E -2.04%K -3.11%G +0.000%	1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -6.10%E -4.39%K -15.65%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-15 22:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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