Las Vegas Raiders v Kansas City Chiefs

2026-10-04 20:25 UTC — NFL

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

32%

68%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Las Vegas Raiders (Local)

Prediction 32.19%3.11fair odd

EV -3.44%

Edge -1.15%

Kelly -1.72%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.97%32.19%32.19%32.40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.902.952.953.0034%34%34%33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Kansas City Chiefs (Visit)

Prediction 67.81%1.47fair odd

EV -4.38%

Edge -3.11%

Kelly -10.69%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.60%67.81%67.81%68.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.391.401.401.4172%71%71%71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -3.44%E -1.15%K -1.72%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.38%E -3.11%K -10.69%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-07 14:25
Caesars	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -6.66%E -2.30%K -3.50%G +0.000%	1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -5.74%E -4.13%K -14.72%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-15 22:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.