The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Kansas City Chiefs v Los Angeles Chargers

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 20:25 UTC

Final: Kansas City Chiefs 22–6 Los Angeles Chargers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kansas City Chiefs (Local)

Prediction 76.48%1.31fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -4.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.40%76.29%76.56%78.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.241.251.2989.29%80.38%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Los Angeles Chargers (Visit)

Prediction 23.52%4.25fair odd
EV +7.00%
Edge +1.54%
Kelly +1.97%
Growth +0.138%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.33%23.71%23.44%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.554.074.104.5528.17%24.58%24.39%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kansas City Chiefs (Local): 76.48%; Los Angeles Chargers (Visit): 23.52%. For Los Angeles Chargers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.25. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 78.45%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%EV +7.00%E +1.54%K +1.97%G +0.138%2.0%2026-10-18 20:24
Everygame🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67%EV -6.69%E -5.48%K -30.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV +5.82%E +1.29%K +1.66%G +0.097%4.2%2026-10-18 19:22
BetAnything🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -6.69%E -5.48%K -30.41%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV +3.47%E +0.789%K +1.02%G +0.035%4.7%2026-10-18 19:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.68%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV +2.29%E +0.527%K +0.685%G +0.016%3.0%2026-10-16 19:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.68%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV +2.29%E +0.527%K +0.685%G +0.016%3.0%2026-10-16 19:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.68%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV +2.29%E +0.527%K +0.685%G +0.016%3.0%2026-10-16 19:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.68%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.32%EV +2.29%E +0.527%K +0.685%G +0.016%3.0%2026-10-16 19:25
MyBookie.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.96%EV -5.92%E -4.82%K -25.76%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.04%EV +2.29%E +0.527%K +0.685%G +0.016%4.3%2026-10-18 20:25
BetMGM🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.74%EV -5.16%E -4.16%K -21.50%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.26%EV +1.82%E +0.421%K +0.548%G +0.010%3.7%2026-10-18 20:25
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 78.02%EV -6.69%E -5.48%K -30.41%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.98%EV +1.82%E +0.421%K +0.548%G +0.010%5.1%2026-10-18 20:25
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -5.16%E -4.16%K -21.50%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV +1.12%E +0.260%K +0.339%G +0.004%3.9%2026-10-18 20:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -5.16%E -4.16%K -21.50%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV -0.057%E -0.013%K -0.018%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-16 19:25
Caesars🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -1.23%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-16 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -1.23%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-18 20:20
BetUS🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 77.06%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.94%EV -1.23%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-18 20:25
betfred_uk🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.16%E -4.16%K -21.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -1.23%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-18 11:04
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.16%E -4.16%K -21.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -1.23%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-16 19:25
Bally Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.16%E -4.16%K -21.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -1.23%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-16 19:25
betPARX🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -5.16%E -4.16%K -21.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -1.23%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-16 19:23
Betr (AU)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.92%E -4.82%K -25.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -1.23%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 19:44
BetRivers🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -6.69%E -5.48%K -30.41%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -1.23%E -0.294%K -0.385%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 20:25
GTbets🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -5.16%E -4.16%K -21.50%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV -2.41%E -0.580%K -0.765%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 20:25
NordicBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.09%EV -5.92%E -4.82%K -25.76%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.91%EV -2.64%E -0.639%K -0.842%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 20:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.77%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.23%EV -2.88%E -0.697%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 20:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.77%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.23%EV -2.88%E -0.697%K -0.920%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 20:25
FanDuel🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 76.49%EV -3.63%E -2.88%K -13.96%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -3.58%E -0.874%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-16 18:35
Fanatics🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -3.58%E -0.874%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 20:24
SportsBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.16%E -4.16%K -21.50%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.58%E -0.874%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 18:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -6.69%E -5.48%K -30.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -3.58%E -0.874%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-14 23:19
Pinnacle🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.94%EV -2.10%E -1.64%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 24.06%EV -5.00%E -1.24%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-18 20:24
ReBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%EV -2.10%E -1.64%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-18 20:24
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 17:59
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 18:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 18:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 18:45
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 20:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 20:19
theScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 20:20
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 18:45
TAB🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 19:59
Bet Right🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.39%E -3.52%K -17.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 20:25
Betway🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.69%E -5.48%K -30.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 20:25
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.69%E -5.48%K -30.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 20:24
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.69%E -5.48%K -30.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.94%E -1.48%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 20:24
picklebet_au🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -2.10%E -1.64%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -8.29%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-18 20:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -2.87%E -2.26%K -10.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -8.29%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 20:23
Bovada🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -3.63%E -2.88%K -13.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -8.29%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 20:23
Dabble (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -2.10%E -1.64%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -9.46%E -2.46%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 20:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.31%EV -9.75%E -8.26%K -54.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -10.64%E -2.80%K -3.80%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-18 20:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -1.34%E -1.04%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -11.82%E -3.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 20:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -3.63%E -2.88%K -13.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -11.82%E -3.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 20:24
LeoVegas🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.60%EV -7.45%E -6.16%K -35.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -11.82%E -3.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 20:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -6.69%E -5.48%K -30.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -12.99%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 19:59
PMU (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 76.76%EV -14.34%E -12.80%K -119.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.24%EV -12.99%E -3.51%K -4.81%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-16 19:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -1.34%E -1.04%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -15.34%E -4.26%K -5.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 20:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.40%EV -1.34%E -1.04%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.60%EV -16.28%E -4.57%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-18 20:24
Fliff🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -2.10%E -1.64%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -16.52%E -4.65%K -6.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 20:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (9)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 77.33%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.67%0.2%2026-10-18 20:25
Novig◎1.30I 76.92%NM 76.62%4.26I 23.47%NM 23.38%0.4%2026-10-18 20:24
Matchbook◎1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%0.8%2026-10-18 20:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%0.8%2026-10-18 20:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.29I 77.52%NM 76.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%0.8%2026-10-18 20:25
ProphetX◎1.29I 77.52%NM 76.71%4.25I 23.53%NM 23.29%1.0%2026-10-18 20:25
Polymarket◎1.28I 78.13%NM 77.26%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74%1.1%2026-10-18 20:19
Smarkets◎1.28I 78.13%NM 77.06%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.94%1.4%2026-10-18 20:25
BetOpenly◎1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%5.3%2026-10-18 20:24