The School of Odds
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Green Bay Packers v Chicago Bears

2026-10-11 20:25 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Green Bay Packers (Local)

Prediction 61.09%1.64fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -3.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.00%61.09%61.09%62.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.561.561.6065.79%64.10%64.10%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chicago Bears (Visit)

Prediction 38.91%2.57fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.81%38.91%38.91%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.452.452.5041.67%40.82%40.82%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Green Bay Packers (Local): 61.09%; Chicago Bears (Visit): 38.91%. For Green Bay Packers (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.64. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.60, with an expected value of -2.25%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.25%E -1.41%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -6.63%E -2.76%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-30 09:59
Caesars🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.14%E -4.69%K -13.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -2.74%E -1.09%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-15 22:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.