The School of Odds

Detroit Lions v New England Patriots

2026-11-15 14:30 UTC — NFL

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Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Detroit Lions (Local)

Prediction 52.64%1.90fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -0.834%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%52.97%52.28%56.04%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.711.811.831.8758%55%55%53%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

New England Patriots (Visit)

Prediction 47.36%2.11fair odd
EV +3.24%
Edge +1.49%
Kelly +2.75%
Growth +0.089%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.96%47.03%47.72%48.93%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.912.002.002.1852%50%50%46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -9.98%E -5.84%K -14.06%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV +3.24%E +1.49%K +2.75%G +0.089%4.4%2026-06-30 09:58
DraftKings1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.24%E -2.91%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.92%E -1.42%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-13 14:05
theScore Bet1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -5.24%E -2.91%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -2.92%E -1.42%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-21 01:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.66%E -2.00%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.28%E -2.64%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-13 18:50
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.66%E -2.00%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.28%E -2.64%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-13 18:50
Coral1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.66%E -2.00%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.28%E -2.64%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-13 18:55
Unibet (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.66%E -2.00%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.28%E -2.64%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-21 01:20
ReBet1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -4.72%E -2.61%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.28%E -2.64%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-21 01:20
William Hill1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.24%E -2.91%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.28%E -2.64%K -5.28%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-14 17:15
FanDuel1.86I 53.76%NM 51.56%EV -2.09%E -1.12%K -2.43%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.44%EV -6.23%E -3.15%K -6.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-30 09:59
Neds1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -3.66%E -2.00%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -6.23%E -3.15%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-13 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -3.66%E -2.00%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -6.23%E -3.15%K -6.36%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-13 18:50
MyBookie.ag1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -5.24%E -2.91%K -6.56%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.23%E -3.15%K -6.36%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-21 01:25
SportsBet1.87I 53.48%NM 51.30%EV -1.56%E -0.834%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.70%EV -6.71%E -3.40%K -6.91%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-30 09:59
Betclic (FR)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.28%EV -6.30%E -3.54%K -8.07%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.72%EV -7.65%E -3.92%K -8.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 01:20
LeoVegas1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.88%E -4.50%K -10.50%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -7.65%E -3.92%K -8.06%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-21 10:00
Paddy Power1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -3.66%E -2.00%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.55%E -5.00%K -10.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-13 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 52.43%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.57%8.4%2026-07-21 01:20
Arbitrage (2 combinations) +0.66%SportsBet 1.87 (53.8%) / Caesars 2.18 (46.2%)Show all 2 combinations
Detroit Lions (Local)New England Patriots (Visit)Margin
SportsBet 1.87 (53.8%)Caesars 2.18 (46.2%)+0.657%
FanDuel 1.86 (54.0%)Caesars 2.18 (46.0%)+0.366%