The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Chicago Bears v New England Patriots

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 00:15 UTC

Final: Chicago Bears 30–24 New England Patriots

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Bears (Local)

Prediction 58.27%1.72fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.903%
Kelly -2.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%58.24%58.23%59.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.631.651.6966.67%61.21%60.79%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New England Patriots (Visit)

Prediction 41.73%2.40fair odd
EV +0.155%
Edge +0.064%
Kelly +0.110%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.15%41.76%41.77%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.282.302.4050.00%43.87%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chicago Bears (Local): 58.27%; New England Patriots (Visit): 41.73%. For New England Patriots (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.396. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.400, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.155%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -5.60%E -3.46%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV +0.155%E +0.064%K +0.110%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-22 22:30
Bovada🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -6.19%E -3.84%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV +0.155%E +0.064%K +0.110%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-23 00:13
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 59.06%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.94%EV -0.680%E -0.286%K -0.493%G +0.000%2.6%2026-10-22 23:25
Coolbet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.66%EV -2.69%E -1.61%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 41.34%EV -1.10%E -0.463%K -0.801%G +0.000%2.1%2026-10-23 00:15
theScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.93%E -0.822%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-23 00:00
Dabble (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.60%E -3.46%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -1.93%E -0.822%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-23 00:14
GTbets🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -5.60%E -3.46%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -1.93%E -0.822%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-23 00:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -6.19%E -3.84%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -1.93%E -0.822%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 23:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -2.35%E -1.00%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-23 00:15
BetUS🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.65%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.35%EV -2.35%E -1.00%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-22 17:35
FanDuel🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.94%EV -5.02%E -3.08%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.06%EV -2.35%E -1.00%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-22 22:05
ReBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%EV -2.69%E -1.61%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%EV -2.77%E -1.19%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-23 00:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -3.27%E -1.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -3.18%E -1.37%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-23 00:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -3.27%E -1.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -3.18%E -1.37%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-23 00:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -3.27%E -1.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -3.18%E -1.37%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-23 00:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -3.27%E -1.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -3.18%E -1.37%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-23 00:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 58.29%EV -3.27%E -1.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -3.18%E -1.37%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-23 00:15
MyBookie.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.44%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.56%EV -3.18%E -1.37%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-23 00:04
Caesars🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.44%E -2.71%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -3.18%E -1.37%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-23 00:10
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.02%E -1.75%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-23 00:15
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.02%E -1.75%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-22 17:20
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.02%E -1.75%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-22 19:20
Fanatics🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -4.02%E -1.75%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-22 22:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.44%E -2.71%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -4.02%E -1.75%K -3.09%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-23 00:00
SportsBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.60%E -3.46%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.02%E -1.75%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-23 00:15
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.60%E -3.46%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.02%E -1.75%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 22:05
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.60%E -3.46%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.02%E -1.75%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 00:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.60%E -3.46%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.02%E -1.75%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 22:05
Betway🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.60%E -3.46%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -4.02%E -1.75%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-23 00:10
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.19%E -3.84%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.02%E -1.75%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-22 00:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.19%E -3.84%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.02%E -1.75%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-22 00:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.19%E -3.84%K -10.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -4.02%E -1.75%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-22 00:20
NordicBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -4.44%E -2.71%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -5.69%E -2.52%K -4.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-23 00:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -1.53%E -0.903%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-23 00:15
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.69%E -1.61%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-23 00:15
Bet Right🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 00:15
betfred_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 00:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 00:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 00:15
TAB🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.86%E -2.34%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 00:15
Betsson🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.44%E -2.71%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-23 00:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.02%E -3.08%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-23 00:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.60%E -3.46%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-22 04:35
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.60%E -3.46%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 00:09
LeoVegas🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.77%E -4.23%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-23 00:15
Fliff🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -7.35%E -4.62%K -12.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -6.10%E -2.71%K -4.88%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-23 00:14
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.27%E -1.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -6.94%E -3.11%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 00:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.27%E -1.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -6.94%E -3.11%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 00:00
BetRivers🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.27%E -1.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -6.94%E -3.11%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 00:00
Bally Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.27%E -1.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -6.94%E -3.11%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 00:00
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.27%E -1.97%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -6.94%E -3.11%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 00:00
Betr (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.69%E -1.61%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.19%E -3.72%K -6.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 00:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.77%E -4.23%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.19%E -3.72%K -6.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-23 00:15
betano_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.77%E -4.23%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.19%E -3.72%K -6.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-23 00:15
Bet Victor🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.77%E -4.23%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.19%E -3.72%K -6.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-23 00:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 57.64%EV -7.94%E -5.02%K -13.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.36%EV -10.28%E -4.78%K -8.94%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-23 00:13
NetBet (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.11%EV -9.68%E -6.25%K -17.61%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -10.28%E -4.78%K -8.94%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-23 00:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.14%EV -12.60%E -8.40%K -25.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.86%EV -16.54%E -8.27%K -16.54%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-23 00:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
BetOpenly◎1.74I 57.47%NM 57.56%2.36I 42.37%NM 42.44%-0.2%2026-10-23 00:14
ProphetX◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.76%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.24%0.2%2026-10-23 00:10
Novig◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.66%2.47I 40.49%NM 40.34%0.4%2026-10-22 18:47
Matchbook◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-10-23 00:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-10-23 00:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-10-23 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10%0.6%2026-10-23 00:10
Kalshi◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-10-20 02:20
Polymarket◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.37%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.63%0.9%2026-10-22 00:05
Smarkets◎1.64I 60.98%NM 60.00%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.00%1.6%2026-10-23 00:10