The School of Odds

Atlanta Falcons v Chicago Bears

2026-10-18 17:00 UTC — NFL

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Atlanta Falcons (Local)

Prediction 39.21%2.55fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -0.788%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.42%39.21%39.21%40.00%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.402.452.452.5042%41%41%40%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Chicago Bears (Visit)

Prediction 60.79%1.65fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -4.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.00%60.79%60.79%61.58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.561.581.581.6064%63%63%63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -1.97%E -0.788%K -1.31%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -5.17%E -3.31%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.1%2026-06-15 22:38
DraftKings2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -5.89%E -2.45%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.74%E -1.71%K -4.56%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-07 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.