The School of Odds

USC Trojans v Fresno State Bulldogs

2026-09-05 01:00 UTC — NCAAF

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Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

USC Trojans (Local)

Prediction 92.45%1.08fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -3.70%
Kelly -96.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.82%92.51%92.49%94.01%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.021.031.031.0498%97%97%96%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Fresno State Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 7.55%13.25fair odd
EV +20.78%
Edge +1.30%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.288%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.99%7.49%7.51%10.18%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
9.0012.4912.2516.0011%8%8%6%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
theScore Bet1.02I 98.04%NM 94.01%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.99%EV +20.78%E +1.30%K +1.39%G +0.288%4.3%2026-07-14 20:04
Hard Rock Bet1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +5.68%E +0.406%K +0.437%G +0.025%5.2%2026-06-11 15:30
betPARX1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV +1.91%E +0.142%K +0.153%G +0.003%4.5%2026-07-08 17:04
Bally Bet1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV +1.91%E +0.142%K +0.153%G +0.003%4.5%2026-07-08 17:05
Svenska Spel1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV +1.91%E +0.142%K +0.153%G +0.003%4.5%2026-07-08 17:05
ATG (SE)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV +1.91%E +0.142%K +0.153%G +0.003%4.5%2026-07-08 17:05
DraftKings1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV -1.86%E -0.143%K -0.155%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-14 09:54
GTbets1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -3.85%E -3.70%K -96.27%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV -1.86%E -0.143%K -0.155%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-22 13:29
FanDuel1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -1.86%E -0.143%K -0.155%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-14 18:29
Caesars1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -1.86%E -0.143%K -0.155%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-20 20:18
Coolbet1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -5.64%E -0.451%K -0.490%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-24 02:10
Bovada1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -9.41%E -0.784%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-20 14:10
BetRivers1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -9.41%E -0.784%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 17:04
Unibet (SE)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -9.41%E -0.784%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 17:04
Unibet (NL)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -9.41%E -0.784%K -0.856%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 17:05
Unibet (UK)1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -9.41%E -0.784%K -0.856%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-11 15:29
MyBookie.ag1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -9.41%E -0.784%K -0.856%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 21:04
LeoVegas (SE)1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -13.19%E -1.15%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 17:04
Unibet1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -13.19%E -1.15%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 17:05
Betr (AU)1.03I 97.09%NM 91.61%EV -4.78%E -4.64%K -159.18%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.39%EV -15.07%E -1.34%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-20 14:29
PointsBet (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -16.96%E -1.54%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-01 10:40
LeoVegas1.02I 98.04%NM 89.82%EV -5.70%E -5.59%K -284.99%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -32.06%E -3.56%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-02 10:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.