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USC Trojans v Fresno State Bulldogs

2026-09-05 01:00 UTC — NCAAF

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

USC Trojans (Local)

Prediction 92.77%1.08fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -3.38%
Kelly -87.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.82%92.78%92.86%93.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.031.031.0498.04%97.38%97.09%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fresno State Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 7.23%13.83fair odd
EV +15.67%
Edge +0.980%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.164%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.05%7.22%7.14%10.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0012.9013.0016.0011.11%7.75%7.69%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: USC Trojans (Local): 92.77%; Fresno State Bulldogs (Visit): 7.23%. For Fresno State Bulldogs (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.83. 7 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 16.00, producing a positive expected value of +15.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.95%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.05%EV +15.67%E +0.980%K +1.04%G +0.164%3.3%2026-08-05 15:54
DraftKings🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +8.44%E +0.563%K +0.603%G +0.051%3.8%2026-08-05 15:44
GTbets🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.55%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%14.95I 6.69%NM 6.45%EV +8.08%E +0.541%K +0.579%G +0.047%3.8%2026-08-13 03:45
Caesars🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.15%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.85%EV +1.21%E +0.087%K +0.093%G +0.001%4.2%2026-08-10 05:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -5.37%E -5.27%K -268.71%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +1.21%E +0.087%K +0.093%G +0.001%5.2%2026-06-11 15:30
theScore Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -5.37%E -5.27%K -268.71%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +1.21%E +0.087%K +0.093%G +0.001%5.2%2026-08-07 12:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -5.37%E -5.27%K -268.71%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV +1.21%E +0.087%K +0.093%G +0.001%5.2%2026-08-02 22:19
FanDuel🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.05%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%13.80I 7.25%NM 6.95%EV -0.232%E -0.017%K -0.018%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-03 15:45
BetUS🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.85%EV -3.52%E -3.38%K -87.97%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.15%EV -2.40%E -0.178%K -0.192%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-13 12:54
betPARX🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV -2.40%E -0.178%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-08 17:04
Bally Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV -2.40%E -0.178%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-08 17:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV -2.40%E -0.178%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-08 17:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.91%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.09%EV -2.40%E -0.178%K -0.192%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-08 17:05
Coral🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.02%E -0.463%K -0.501%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-02 22:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.02%E -0.463%K -0.501%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-02 22:20
BetMGM🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV -6.02%E -0.463%K -0.501%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-02 22:19
SportsBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.37%E -5.27%K -268.71%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -6.02%E -0.463%K -0.501%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-12 00:09
Coolbet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV -9.63%E -0.770%K -0.837%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-24 02:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -5.37%E -5.27%K -268.71%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -9.63%E -0.770%K -0.837%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 15:45
BetRivers🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -13.24%E -1.10%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 17:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -13.24%E -1.10%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 17:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -13.24%E -1.10%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 17:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.37%E -5.27%K -268.71%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -13.24%E -1.10%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-11 15:29
MyBookie.ag🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -5.37%E -5.27%K -268.71%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -13.24%E -1.10%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-07 21:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -16.86%E -1.47%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 17:04
Unibet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -4.45%E -4.32%K -148.22%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV -16.86%E -1.47%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-08 17:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -5.37%E -5.27%K -268.71%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -20.47%E -1.86%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-01 10:40
ReBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.44%EV -5.37%E -5.27%K -268.71%G +0.000%10.90I 9.17%NM 8.56%EV -21.20%E -1.94%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-13 10:24
LeoVegas🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.82%EV -5.37%E -5.27%K -268.71%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -34.93%E -3.88%K -4.37%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-02 10:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.00I 100.00%NM 93.02%13.33I 7.50%NM 6.98%7.5%2026-08-14 19:29

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