The School of Odds

USC Trojans v Fresno State Bulldogs

2026-09-05 01:00 — NCAAF

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Option 1: USC Trojans (Local)

1.0298.04%Min
1.0297.64%Mean
1.0298.04%Median
1.0397.09%Max
89.82%1.113Min
93.57%1.069Max
92.54%1.081Mean
92.46%1.082Median
92.54%1.081IQM
92.65%1.079Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.03 under the IQM model: 92.54%

EV -4.68%Edge -4.54%Kelly -155.98%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Fresno State Bulldogs (Visit)

9.0011.11%Min
12.807.82%Mean
12.757.84%Median
15.006.67%Max
6.43%15.563Min
10.18%9.824Max
7.46%13.413Mean
7.54%13.255Median
7.46%13.413IQM
7.35%13.598Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 15.00 under the IQM model: 7.46%

EV +11.83%Edge +0.789%Kelly +0.845%Growth +0.100%

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

BookmakerUSC Trojans (Local)Fresno State Bulldogs (Visit) ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings1.03I 97.09% NM 93.57%EV -4.68% E -4.54% K -155.98% G +0.000%15.00I 6.67% NM 6.43%EV +11.83% E +0.789% K +0.845% G +0.100%3.8%2026-07-04 03:19
GTbets1.03I 97.09% NM 93.26%EV -4.68% E -4.54% K -155.98% G +0.000%14.25I 7.02% NM 6.74%EV +6.24% E +0.438% K +0.471% G +0.029%4.1%2026-07-04 03:24
Hard Rock Bet1.02I 98.04% NM 93.21%EV -5.60% E -5.49% K -280.24% G +0.000%14.00I 7.14% NM 6.79%EV +4.38% E +0.313% K +0.337% G +0.015%5.2%2026-06-11 15:30
Bovada1.02I 98.04% NM 93.21%EV -5.60% E -5.49% K -280.24% G +0.000%14.00I 7.14% NM 6.79%EV +4.38% E +0.313% K +0.337% G +0.015%5.2%2026-07-02 17:20
FanDuel1.03I 97.09% NM 93.05%EV -4.68% E -4.54% K -155.98% G +0.000%13.80I 7.25% NM 6.95%EV +2.89% E +0.209% K +0.226% G +0.007%4.3%2026-06-01 02:50
Caesars1.03I 97.09% NM 92.66%EV -4.68% E -4.54% K -155.98% G +0.000%13.00I 7.69% NM 7.34%EV -3.08% E -0.237% K -0.256% G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-20 20:18
Coolbet1.03I 97.09% NM 92.39%EV -4.68% E -4.54% K -155.98% G +0.000%12.50I 8.00% NM 7.61%EV -6.81% E -0.544% K -0.592% G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-24 02:10
NordicBet1.02I 98.04% NM 92.46%EV -5.60% E -5.49% K -280.24% G +0.000%12.50I 8.00% NM 7.54%EV -6.81% E -0.544% K -0.592% G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-01 10:40
Betsson1.02I 98.04% NM 92.46%EV -5.60% E -5.49% K -280.24% G +0.000%12.50I 8.00% NM 7.54%EV -6.81% E -0.544% K -0.592% G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-01 10:40
Unibet (UK)1.02I 98.04% NM 92.17%EV -5.60% E -5.49% K -280.24% G +0.000%12.00I 8.33% NM 7.83%EV -10.53% E -0.878% K -0.958% G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-11 15:29
PointsBet (AU)1.02I 98.04% NM 91.51%EV -5.60% E -5.49% K -280.24% G +0.000%11.00I 9.09% NM 8.49%EV -17.99% E -1.64% K -1.80% G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-01 10:40
LeoVegas1.02I 98.04% NM 89.82%EV -5.60% E -5.49% K -280.24% G +0.000%9.00I 11.11% NM 10.18%EV -32.90% E -3.66% K -4.11% G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-02 10:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth